Are our Penal Code and Criminal Procedure out-dated?
The Court had taken cognizance of the offences of defiance against Arunditi Roy and others for their speeches made in a Seminar “Azadi: The Only Way” wherein the noted writer is stated to have strongly opined on the alleged military excesses in Kashmir. On the basis of a Compliant filed under Sec 156(3) of the Cr PC at the Tilak Marg Police Station against the writer Arunditi Roy, Syed Geelani, Varavara Rao, SAR Geelani and some others who made speeches which were anti-Indian Statements when no action was taken by the Police Station, the case was brought before the Metropolitan Magistrate who asked Police to book the culprits under the relevant Criminal procedure Code and file cases against them in a competent Court of Law, after examining the documents produced before him.
Sec 156 of the Cr P C, 1973 states:
(1) Any officer in charge of a police station may, without the order of a Magistrate, investigate any cognizable case which a court having jurisdiction over the local area within the limits of such station would have power to inquire into or try under the provisions of Chapter XIII.
(2) No proceeding of a police officer in any such case shall at any stage be called in question on the ground that the case was one, which such officer was not empowered under this section to investigate.
(3) Any Magistrate empowered under section 190 may order such an investigation as above mentioned.
Union Law Minister M Veerappa Moily slammed Roy’s speech as “unfortunate” and said "Freedom of speech cannot violate the patriotic sentiments of the people and country.” The government maintains that peacefully making pro-Azadi speeches does not amount to sedition but inciting hatred through inflammatory oratory in an already emotionally charged atmosphere in the Valley may lead to violence. However, when the Police filed a report in the Metropolitan Magistrate’s Court that the speeches were not inflammatory and no offence under sedition could be made out, the Magistrate who had seen the documents chided the Police for filing a wrong report.
Act of Sedition appears in Chapter VI of First Schedule (Offence against the State) which is a cognizable non bailable offence that is defined in Sec 124 (A) of IPC. The law defines Section 124A of IPC as “whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by signs, or by visible representation, or otherwise, brings or attempts to bring into hatred or contempt, or excites or attempts to excite disaffection towards, the Government established by law in India can be booked under sedition.”
In today’s Hindu, (Nov 28, 2010) Arundhati Roy has described the various wordings of Jawaharlal Nehru, which she characterized as amounting to sedition. In his statement in the Security Council (in the 765th meeting of SC on 24 January 1957), Shri V K Krishna Menon committed that India believed in honouring international commitments and obligations it has undertaken.
Perhaps, Arundhati might be referring to the agreements, both oral and written that were arrived at regarding partition of India into India and Pakistan. Hindu majority regions which had a Muslim King, would decide for it whether it would cede to India or Pakistan. Junagadh, Hyderabad, Kashmir had identical problems. Junagadh was a Hindu territory with Muslim King, Hyderabad ditto, while Kashmir had a Hindu King. The case of Kashmir was different in so much that the Pakistan army inflicted a military attack, and to defend the Country, the Maharaja of Kashmir, through an act of accession, acceded to India with a signed Instrument of Accession. He asked India’s help to repulse the invaders. Once this was done, the Pakistan army was repulsed, even though they occupy a chunk of land in Azad Kashmir or what is called as Pakistan occupied Kashmir, even today. Pakistan was West Pakistan and East Pakistan(14 August 1947). Today, East Pakistan is ruled by its own people and ceded from Pakistan and became Bangladesh. Therefore, when there was an aggression, and Pakistan started it, they jumped the gun, and today, they have no locus standi in any part of Kashmir. They have waged innumerable Wars with India. The unrest in Kashmir is largely due to the broad propaganda of the jihad leaders. To say that there is wanton attack on Indian soil, the military should keep quiet cannot be termed as a genuine freedom of expression.
It is true, that the Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi was tried for Sedition in 1922; then the Mahatma had said “Section 124 A, under which I am happily charged, is perhaps the prince among the political sections of the Indian Penal Code designed to suppress the liberty of the citizen.”
In his trial Gandhi has clearly stated that if one had “no affection for a person or system, one should be free to give the fullest expression to his disaffection, so long as he does not contemplate, promote, or incite to violence.”
“Some of the most loved of India’s patriots have been convicted under it. I consider it a privilege, therefore, to be charged under that section,” he said.
Is this Section deterring free speech, guaranteed under the Fundamental Rights in the Constitution? Activists argue that sedition cases rarely stand in a court of law and that there should be clear demarcation between offences committed by cross-border terrorists opening fire on innocent citizens and citizens voicing dissatisfaction with governance. They should not fall under the purview of one common law.
Social activists have slammed Section 124A as “draconian”, pitching for freedom of speech and expression in a non-military state. The draconian laws should it remain in a sovereign, democratic Republic Statute?
The damage done to Tata through the release of Nira Radira tapes selectively is another infringement and consequently, the Right to Life which includes Right to privacy, had been breached in a callous manner. How did the Income Tax tapes come into the possession of ordinary people and electronic media already tainted for their role in the 1.73 lakh Cr pilferage? I think the Rights of the people are supreme. If the purpose of the IT department was to unearth fraudulent deeds, they should undertake to do that, and not leak sensitive tapes selectively. The Supreme Court should get into the nexus, culpability must be fixed. Guilty must be given deterrent punishment.
It is high time, we need to update our penal Code and Criminal procedure Code. We are a sovereign independent Republic. The people of India are Supreme in India. For it is the “People of India who gave unto ourselves the Constitution of India”.
*************
These blogs have a autobiographical content. It describes briefly, the vivid memories of childhood, adolecence, adulthood. Memories of the Past, actions of the Present and dreams of the Future
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Welcome President Obama to India

As we brace to welcome Obama, the President of the United States of America, who brought hope but one year down the line, less cheer as he celebrates the aftermath of his assuming charge of the largest democracy in the World. The recent elections where, the Democrats lost majority in the House of the People, but managed to maintain a slight upper lead over the Republicans in the Senate. Number of fortress fell as Republicans candidates won the Governorship by a convincing margin.
One year ago, people thought that the regime of Obama will open up vistas. As the first black President in the United States, he will change the geography of the greatest nation where democracy of the people, by the people, to the people is the gospel of the Bible.
Today, the economy continues to be in the titters. Even though China has overtaken America as the greatest exporter with exports worth US $ 1.25 trillion, and Germany with US $ 1.05 trillion is ahead of America which stands at the 3 rd place with 1.04 trillion. Though the dollar has depreciated against almost all currencies, it stays mobile and strong even though penultimate parity has decreased and Dollar has lost its sheen. More Countries including China has placed all the Balance of Trade dollars in the American treasury Bills. This is good and positive encouragement to the economy, as America need not print more paper money and reach hyperinflation, as wealth is with it.
All along, America as a country outsourced jobs, as the cost of labour compared to the outsourced labour is very high in the former compared to the latter. Indian software engineers get paid around $1.5 dollars/ hour against $ 40 which an American will demand. Further more, the quality of supply is assured as work is part of Agreement and not an agreement of Contract with an American for doing a Job.
Outsiders stretch their working hours and are flexible while the Americans will stand by the ethics of duties and responsibilities. There again, it is advantageous for America to outsource people rather than providing employment.
With loss of income from work, how do you spread money? The Economists believed that by giving low interest credit to the workers to improve their standard of living, there will be money flow from the Banks to the Services sector and it would cause an economic cycle causing an economic bloom. But nothing of that sort happened. The people, who helped themselves to easy Credit, couldn’t repay, and once there was a struck repayment, banks began to feel the absence of money flow to and fro. The Houses that were mortgaguged decreased in value to the Credit, as there was a huge fall in demand. The Net Present Worth began to lower than the Worth which was perceived by the Banks at the time of handing the Credit. When there was a large re-payment crisis, the Banks could not continue the stagnation of money flow, with the result, the Banks bubble burst. Though Government intervened, the Banks had to progress on stimulus which was entirely different from capital infusion. It just served as working capital. With an abnormal trade deficit, cost overruns in Afghanistan and Iraq, enhanced military spending to quell the anticipated terrorist attacks, dilapidated economy, America of the present day looks crest fallen like the America of 1929. Survival is difficult, and maintaining the economy is extremely Herculean, and removing the scar of the backlash of the 2 nd millennium is gargantuan. President Obama requires all the support if he has to marshal America to its growth decades. Time alone will tell, whether he is successful or he will go down in history as somebody who tried and tried and tried, but it Went with the Wind!
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Economic Phase-out avalanche?
The U.S. government, is perhaps stimulating growth in the moribund economy by stoking the fires of inflation. But by leaving interest rates low and buying up bonds - a policy known as quantitative easing (QE) - the U.S. Federal Reserve risks debasing the dollar, which could lead to a prolonged period of hyperinflation that would send prices skyrocketing.
Lower inflation warranted looser monetary Policy. Banks are willing and prepared to ease policy to boost inflation expectations shortly. The Government was keeping interest rates at record lows, and purchased $ 1.7 trillion of US securities to keep the economy in subdued humour. Another round of expectant quantitative easing would make the economy further sober.
The weary financial system, already hanging with bouts of flows of money, with further money flowing into the system, the Government may well be sowing the seeds of hyperinflation. With pumping in more and more Cash into the System, deficits of $1.3 trillion and additional QE of $1 trillion on the table, the odds are getting greater all the time that a bout of hyperinflation could be in the cards. Hyperinflation can be simply defined as very high inflation, a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. It usually occurs when monetary and fiscal authorities of a nation issue large quantities of money to pay for a large stream of government expenditures.
In numbers, hyperinflation could mean anything from a 100% cumulative inflation rate over three years to inflation exceeding 50% a month. For example, an inflation rate of 100% a month would reduce the value of a $20 bill to $2.50 in four months.
In order to sustain the economy, and bail out banks with $ 700 billion ‘Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) and a stimulus programme worth $ 787 billion to boost the battered economy, and launching of a near $ 1 trillion rescue of government backed housing authorities, the Government has racked up $ 12.7 trillion in debt guarantees. Without hard assets like Gold in store to back these guarantees, the only alternate for the Government is to print more money to meet its debt obligations.
Hyperinflation can also be viewed as a form of taxation. The most serious consequence of hyperinflation is the reallocation of wealth. It transfers wealth from the general public, which holds money, to the government, which issues money.
A few examples of predominant occurrence of hyperinflation in world economic history are recounted below:-
Germany or the Weimar Republic went through its worst inflation in 1923. The highest currency issued was a 100,000,000,000,000 Mark note, which was the equivalent of about US $ 25. The rate of inflation peaked at 346% per month, meaning prices doubled every two days. The main cause is believed to be the "London ultimatum" in May 1921, which demanded reparations in gold or foreign currency to be paid in annual installments of 2 billion gold marks plus 26% of the value of Germany's exports. Although the Government blamed the massive run up in prices in the hefty war reparations due as a result of the Treaty that ended World War I, many experts say and feel that those payments accounted for only a third of that Country’s deficit. Bankers and Foreign speculators exacerbated the price of escalation, which during the last half of 1922 saw the cost of living index soar from 41 to 685(increase by more than 16 times roughly). 60 marks to the US Dollar in the early 1921 to 8000 marks to a Dollar in Dec 1922. Paper mark/Gold ratio rose from 1 in 1921 to 1 trillion in 1923!
On July 22, 2008, the value of the Zimbabwe dollar had fallen to approximately 688 billion per US $ 1. After the country's independence, inflation was stable until Robert Mugabe began a program of land reforms that primarily focused on taking land from white farmers and redistributing those properties and assets to black farmers. Rampant hyperinflation ensued when this policy sent food production and revenues from exports of food plummeting;
Hyperinflation in post World War II Hungary may be the highest on record. In April 1946, prices zoomed higher by 195% every day, meaning they doubled every 15.6 hours. The war caused enormous costs and, later, even higher losses to the relatively small and open Hungarian economy. The national bank was practically under government control. The government spent more than it could raise in taxes and the central bank printed more paper money to finance the deficit.
America has the financial strength and capacity to keep the hyperinflation under raps by balancing its interest rates to keep runway inflation in check. However, unless watched, inflation tends to take off rather quickly. If the prices bubble in few short months, inflation would be a hard not to crack.
There are business people, who sensing inflation, convert money into stocks of commodities and hoard them, creating artificial scarcity in the Market;
Distortion of relative prices;
People tend to convert their assets into non monetary ones or keep their assets in relative stable foreign currency;.
People regard monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.
Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period.
Then how do people protect themselves from inflation and lowering of their purchasing Power.
Government need to control their free wheeling spending. Bring in discipline in spending. Reduce stimulus. Take action to prevent the rise in prices for hard assets. Take precaution against hoarding, high exchange of currency in the market.
India is in a similar plight, as the tweedledum and tweedledee Policy in raising and lowering interest rates, and meddling with the export stimulus, hazy decisions to bring down the Non Performing Assets (NPA) by writing off Crores of Rupees worth of loans from the agricultural debt, playing with the saving interest rates without appropriate planning in developing thrift. Hoarding in Food grains, edible oils, and indiscreet import of commodities including Crude and edible oils, increasing continuously the prices of petroleum products saying they are inevitable, and nervous cycle of food and common inflation, Consumer Price Index showing lazy upward movements, all show that India too is slowly entering the league of Countries where hyperinflation will make a foray. Better beware.
Lower inflation warranted looser monetary Policy. Banks are willing and prepared to ease policy to boost inflation expectations shortly. The Government was keeping interest rates at record lows, and purchased $ 1.7 trillion of US securities to keep the economy in subdued humour. Another round of expectant quantitative easing would make the economy further sober.
The weary financial system, already hanging with bouts of flows of money, with further money flowing into the system, the Government may well be sowing the seeds of hyperinflation. With pumping in more and more Cash into the System, deficits of $1.3 trillion and additional QE of $1 trillion on the table, the odds are getting greater all the time that a bout of hyperinflation could be in the cards. Hyperinflation can be simply defined as very high inflation, a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. It usually occurs when monetary and fiscal authorities of a nation issue large quantities of money to pay for a large stream of government expenditures.
In numbers, hyperinflation could mean anything from a 100% cumulative inflation rate over three years to inflation exceeding 50% a month. For example, an inflation rate of 100% a month would reduce the value of a $20 bill to $2.50 in four months.
In order to sustain the economy, and bail out banks with $ 700 billion ‘Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) and a stimulus programme worth $ 787 billion to boost the battered economy, and launching of a near $ 1 trillion rescue of government backed housing authorities, the Government has racked up $ 12.7 trillion in debt guarantees. Without hard assets like Gold in store to back these guarantees, the only alternate for the Government is to print more money to meet its debt obligations.
Hyperinflation can also be viewed as a form of taxation. The most serious consequence of hyperinflation is the reallocation of wealth. It transfers wealth from the general public, which holds money, to the government, which issues money.
A few examples of predominant occurrence of hyperinflation in world economic history are recounted below:-
Germany or the Weimar Republic went through its worst inflation in 1923. The highest currency issued was a 100,000,000,000,000 Mark note, which was the equivalent of about US $ 25. The rate of inflation peaked at 346% per month, meaning prices doubled every two days. The main cause is believed to be the "London ultimatum" in May 1921, which demanded reparations in gold or foreign currency to be paid in annual installments of 2 billion gold marks plus 26% of the value of Germany's exports. Although the Government blamed the massive run up in prices in the hefty war reparations due as a result of the Treaty that ended World War I, many experts say and feel that those payments accounted for only a third of that Country’s deficit. Bankers and Foreign speculators exacerbated the price of escalation, which during the last half of 1922 saw the cost of living index soar from 41 to 685(increase by more than 16 times roughly). 60 marks to the US Dollar in the early 1921 to 8000 marks to a Dollar in Dec 1922. Paper mark/Gold ratio rose from 1 in 1921 to 1 trillion in 1923!
On July 22, 2008, the value of the Zimbabwe dollar had fallen to approximately 688 billion per US $ 1. After the country's independence, inflation was stable until Robert Mugabe began a program of land reforms that primarily focused on taking land from white farmers and redistributing those properties and assets to black farmers. Rampant hyperinflation ensued when this policy sent food production and revenues from exports of food plummeting;
Hyperinflation in post World War II Hungary may be the highest on record. In April 1946, prices zoomed higher by 195% every day, meaning they doubled every 15.6 hours. The war caused enormous costs and, later, even higher losses to the relatively small and open Hungarian economy. The national bank was practically under government control. The government spent more than it could raise in taxes and the central bank printed more paper money to finance the deficit.
America has the financial strength and capacity to keep the hyperinflation under raps by balancing its interest rates to keep runway inflation in check. However, unless watched, inflation tends to take off rather quickly. If the prices bubble in few short months, inflation would be a hard not to crack.
There are business people, who sensing inflation, convert money into stocks of commodities and hoard them, creating artificial scarcity in the Market;
Distortion of relative prices;
People tend to convert their assets into non monetary ones or keep their assets in relative stable foreign currency;.
People regard monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.
Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period.
Then how do people protect themselves from inflation and lowering of their purchasing Power.
Government need to control their free wheeling spending. Bring in discipline in spending. Reduce stimulus. Take action to prevent the rise in prices for hard assets. Take precaution against hoarding, high exchange of currency in the market.
India is in a similar plight, as the tweedledum and tweedledee Policy in raising and lowering interest rates, and meddling with the export stimulus, hazy decisions to bring down the Non Performing Assets (NPA) by writing off Crores of Rupees worth of loans from the agricultural debt, playing with the saving interest rates without appropriate planning in developing thrift. Hoarding in Food grains, edible oils, and indiscreet import of commodities including Crude and edible oils, increasing continuously the prices of petroleum products saying they are inevitable, and nervous cycle of food and common inflation, Consumer Price Index showing lazy upward movements, all show that India too is slowly entering the league of Countries where hyperinflation will make a foray. Better beware.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Crisis of Confidence?
The World Trade Organization(WTO) has revised its projection for World trade growth upwards to 13.5 per cent in 2010, following faster than expected recovery in trade flow so far this Year. “The surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism”, says the Report. However, WTO in its published report in early March, 2010 had forecast global trade volume to expand 10 % in the current fiscal. Merchandise exports of developed economies are predicted to expand 11.5 per cent in volume terms while the rest of the world including emerging economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States, is expected to inch towards a growth of 16.5 per cent.
The 13.5per cent growth in global trade volume would be the fastest year-on-year expansion recorded since 1950. However, the current expansion is on a low base of the previous year (2009) when the world trade volume was severely depressed. The world exports had plunged 12.2 per cent in 2009-10. The fastest YoY growth so far since 1950 was the 11.8 per cent growth recorded in 1976, one year after the then unprecedented decline of 7.3% in 1975.
The total world trade in 2009-10 was in the region of $ 31.2 trillion, against which China topped the Trade table with $1.2 trillion, Germany came second with $ 1.16 trillion and United States sliding to the third positon with exports at $1.05 trillion. Brazil was ranked (23) with exports worth $ 153 billion, Russia (11 position)($303 billion), India (18th position)($176.5billion). The total export trade realized US $ 12.5 trillion.
World merchandise trade rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2010, boosted by a recovery of GDP in both developed nd developing economies. However, many economists expect output growth to slacken in the Second half with the expiry of fiscal stimulus measures and the winding down of the inventory cycle. The slackening of trade growth in the second half accentuate that an eminent fall in the rate of growth in GDP in developed Countries. While there can be risks of downside, particularly in case an unforeseen financial or microscopic shock triggers another economic downturn, the Report hopes that the upside potentials could trigger better than expected growth in the Second half.
Coincidentally, the Bloomberg quarterly Global Poll forecasts predicts that the United States will lag behind the emerging markets of Brazil, China and India as a preferred destination for investment, having slid from the first position it held during the last Poll conducted three months ago. US economy has been rated as in the fourth place with Brazil and China tied for first, and India in the third Place. The slide in sentiment came as US GDP slid to 1.6% in the Second quarter from 3.7% in the first quarter. Expectations for2011 are down to a median forecast of2.5% from 2.9% in first quarter of 2011-12. The Survey showed that there were dim chances of double dip recession and that United States was slowly on to the path of slow yet steady growth. US people are wary of US budget deficits as a result, crisis of confidence would provoke a dramatic increase in interest rates within two years. The present budget deficit is forecast to be around $ 1.47 trillion for2010 and $1.42 trillion for 2011.
Even though stimulus offered through the various Schemes of the Foreign Trade Policy was evenly balanced, the downsizing of Duty Drawback rates for crucial sectors when it is struggling to find competitive space in the international market show that the policy makers have not become wiser by the bad experiences of the Past. While China’s exports are clocked $1.2 trillion, India has an export figure of just US $ 176.50 billion, the bulk of which comes from textiles and leather segments. As the dollar rate parity with the Rupee is slowly widening, choking inflation is already bleeding the bottom line of Cost of production, Government’s insensitiveness to the export related problems will cost the Country dear in terms of Balance of Trade and BoP, resulting in depletion of Foreign Exchange Reserves. When huge fund outlay is ear-marked for Populist schemes, the export sector becoming cost prohibitive would lead to India loosing advantage in world Trade.
The 13.5per cent growth in global trade volume would be the fastest year-on-year expansion recorded since 1950. However, the current expansion is on a low base of the previous year (2009) when the world trade volume was severely depressed. The world exports had plunged 12.2 per cent in 2009-10. The fastest YoY growth so far since 1950 was the 11.8 per cent growth recorded in 1976, one year after the then unprecedented decline of 7.3% in 1975.
The total world trade in 2009-10 was in the region of $ 31.2 trillion, against which China topped the Trade table with $1.2 trillion, Germany came second with $ 1.16 trillion and United States sliding to the third positon with exports at $1.05 trillion. Brazil was ranked (23) with exports worth $ 153 billion, Russia (11 position)($303 billion), India (18th position)($176.5billion). The total export trade realized US $ 12.5 trillion.
World merchandise trade rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2010, boosted by a recovery of GDP in both developed nd developing economies. However, many economists expect output growth to slacken in the Second half with the expiry of fiscal stimulus measures and the winding down of the inventory cycle. The slackening of trade growth in the second half accentuate that an eminent fall in the rate of growth in GDP in developed Countries. While there can be risks of downside, particularly in case an unforeseen financial or microscopic shock triggers another economic downturn, the Report hopes that the upside potentials could trigger better than expected growth in the Second half.
Coincidentally, the Bloomberg quarterly Global Poll forecasts predicts that the United States will lag behind the emerging markets of Brazil, China and India as a preferred destination for investment, having slid from the first position it held during the last Poll conducted three months ago. US economy has been rated as in the fourth place with Brazil and China tied for first, and India in the third Place. The slide in sentiment came as US GDP slid to 1.6% in the Second quarter from 3.7% in the first quarter. Expectations for2011 are down to a median forecast of2.5% from 2.9% in first quarter of 2011-12. The Survey showed that there were dim chances of double dip recession and that United States was slowly on to the path of slow yet steady growth. US people are wary of US budget deficits as a result, crisis of confidence would provoke a dramatic increase in interest rates within two years. The present budget deficit is forecast to be around $ 1.47 trillion for2010 and $1.42 trillion for 2011.
Even though stimulus offered through the various Schemes of the Foreign Trade Policy was evenly balanced, the downsizing of Duty Drawback rates for crucial sectors when it is struggling to find competitive space in the international market show that the policy makers have not become wiser by the bad experiences of the Past. While China’s exports are clocked $1.2 trillion, India has an export figure of just US $ 176.50 billion, the bulk of which comes from textiles and leather segments. As the dollar rate parity with the Rupee is slowly widening, choking inflation is already bleeding the bottom line of Cost of production, Government’s insensitiveness to the export related problems will cost the Country dear in terms of Balance of Trade and BoP, resulting in depletion of Foreign Exchange Reserves. When huge fund outlay is ear-marked for Populist schemes, the export sector becoming cost prohibitive would lead to India loosing advantage in world Trade.
CWG: Don't look with squint eye!
There has been lot of slur to India as a Country which is slated to host the prestigious Commonwealth games. From the take off stage, the games, conduct of the games, Chairman of the Indian Olympic Association have all been mired in one controversy or the other. Added to that, the Ministry of Sports looked the other way at every event connected with the organization of the Commonwealth games. Worst still, India’s former Sports Minister, even predicted that the ‘Commonwealth games shall fail.’
The games are scheduled at the worst of the worst times. The East based monsoon is slated during this period. There is already terrible floods and destruction of crops resulting in losses. As it is, Agriculture industry which is the back-bone of Indian economy is in adverse days due to plethora of reasons. The date(s) of the games coincided with the pronouncing of the Ayodhya verdict regarding a civil land dispute caste. The post law and order situation appears to be grim. Some terrorist groups have threatened to disrupt the games.
In the meantime, our overzealous electronic media does not waste a single space in their telecasts by picturizing one or the other defect; showing the shabby bathrooms, washing closet, collapse of the overhead bridge to the Nehru Stadium, breaking up of Plaster of Paris in the hall meant for weightlifting events, comments by veterans including Politicians. This has already presented the image of India being sullied in the international eyes as Poor organizers, an event steeped in corruption, unhygienic surroundings, mosquito menace, incomplete infrastructure, and many faults here and there.
Prime Minister, it is shown in the media, is seen taking rounds of various stadia where events are to take place. He has also warned Chief Minsiter, Delhi, Sports Minister, GoI, and President of Indian Olympic Association to act in tandem and finish the job instead of out-pouring their wrath openly.
India needs to take advantage of such a massive event for which Crores of Rupees of tax payers money is being spent. There must be accountability between the Organizers and the Government. If a private body like BCCI can conduct a IPL most successfully with its own generated funds, why can’t Government in association with these Sports bodies organize an international event.
Individual members of the different Countries have started withdrawing from the event. Different countries have expressed their inhibitions in participation. We do not know whether they will come.
With all these failings, India which Obama saw as a sparkling booming growth oriented economy, Indian image will suffer. And the contributors to the fallen image will be Indians themselves. Very sad, indeed.
The games are scheduled at the worst of the worst times. The East based monsoon is slated during this period. There is already terrible floods and destruction of crops resulting in losses. As it is, Agriculture industry which is the back-bone of Indian economy is in adverse days due to plethora of reasons. The date(s) of the games coincided with the pronouncing of the Ayodhya verdict regarding a civil land dispute caste. The post law and order situation appears to be grim. Some terrorist groups have threatened to disrupt the games.
In the meantime, our overzealous electronic media does not waste a single space in their telecasts by picturizing one or the other defect; showing the shabby bathrooms, washing closet, collapse of the overhead bridge to the Nehru Stadium, breaking up of Plaster of Paris in the hall meant for weightlifting events, comments by veterans including Politicians. This has already presented the image of India being sullied in the international eyes as Poor organizers, an event steeped in corruption, unhygienic surroundings, mosquito menace, incomplete infrastructure, and many faults here and there.
Prime Minister, it is shown in the media, is seen taking rounds of various stadia where events are to take place. He has also warned Chief Minsiter, Delhi, Sports Minister, GoI, and President of Indian Olympic Association to act in tandem and finish the job instead of out-pouring their wrath openly.
India needs to take advantage of such a massive event for which Crores of Rupees of tax payers money is being spent. There must be accountability between the Organizers and the Government. If a private body like BCCI can conduct a IPL most successfully with its own generated funds, why can’t Government in association with these Sports bodies organize an international event.
Individual members of the different Countries have started withdrawing from the event. Different countries have expressed their inhibitions in participation. We do not know whether they will come.
With all these failings, India which Obama saw as a sparkling booming growth oriented economy, Indian image will suffer. And the contributors to the fallen image will be Indians themselves. Very sad, indeed.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Is Brazil entering the economic trap?
Is Brazil heading into the eye of a storm?
Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Brazil was a great country to invest. Returns were equivalent of 160%. But, this famous forward looking growing economy faces problems, if immediately not rectified.
Will Brazil remain a favourite of BRIC countries...?
Brazilian government brought in changes in its business approach. The Parliamentary and Presidential election is due soon. Official government spending was budgeted to grow by a moderate 10.7%, and was subject to further trimming to accommodate more spending. Brazil’s state owned Companies, which has been accelerating in recent years (119), is set to increase further by 32%. Brazilian Development Bank’s exposure in lending expected to touch US $ 87billion, while housing lending for the first half grew stealthily by 51% (over the same period of 2009). Government has proposed US $ 886 billion Infrastructure Investment Plan for the next seven years. State lending has increased from 1% of Brazilian GDP to 7%. This would further the deficit in its budget.
Brazilian government passed a Law to wrest control over Oil firms. The increase in oil price fixed by the Government will force Peteroleo Brasilerio to raise $ 65 billion in equity to pay the Government and to finance capital investment needed for exploiting its sub salt Tupi Oil resources. The difference of amount of US $ 42.5 billion received by overcharging is accounted as revenue, but would constitute 2.8% of the GDP. This covers up the fiscal deficit to the extent of 2.8% of GDP.
The lending of money by the state owned banks and Petrobras cash subsidy would make Brazilian deficit postulation at 10-12% of the GDP.
Yet, unlike the U.S. and British economies that have suffered under deficits of this magnitude, the Brazilian economy is in the middle of a roaring boom, with projected GDP growth of 7.8% for this year.
It's not as if Brazil was under-indebted, either; the excessive public debt nearly sent the country into bankruptcy in 2002, and the leeway before debt repeats the process is less than Brazilian commentators seem to think.
The road economic policy will take in Brazil would culminate with the election results which are due in October. If Centrist come to power, a favourable private sector policy without prolifigating public spending will be the central theme of the Economic policy. However, if a Socialist were to be elected to power, they could carry the country to high government spending and income redistribution. The Road map to peruse the current policies has been already set out. Monetary policy would quickly change if an inflationist comes to power.
However, with a true public-sector deficit of 10% of GDP and public spending that's already the highest in Latin America, there isn't much room to expand the state sector before the country runs into big trouble. While commodity prices keep rising, the commodity-dependent Brazil will at least be able to borrow the money it needs.
But if commodity prices falter, a crisis of confidence would be more or less inevitable.
There are positives. Brazil's central bank continues to maintain an admirably sound interest-rate policy, which has kept the short-term rate - currently 10.75% - far above the current inflation level of roughly 5%. That has prevented the inflationary spiral that would otherwise be well underway.
Brazil has had these bursts of growth before, and they have always been ended by a debt crisis followed by a period of forced austerity that has wiped out the previous boom's income gains and worsened the country's huge inequality.
For Brazilian investors and citizens alike, that will certainly be a pity after such a strong run. . But Brazil is currently regarded as one of the world's four great growth economies, and under current policies, that "high fashion" image that has buoyed its economy needed tinkering, if it has to continue to be the ‘Country to Watch tommorrow’
Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Brazil was a great country to invest. Returns were equivalent of 160%. But, this famous forward looking growing economy faces problems, if immediately not rectified.
Will Brazil remain a favourite of BRIC countries...?
Brazilian government brought in changes in its business approach. The Parliamentary and Presidential election is due soon. Official government spending was budgeted to grow by a moderate 10.7%, and was subject to further trimming to accommodate more spending. Brazil’s state owned Companies, which has been accelerating in recent years (119), is set to increase further by 32%. Brazilian Development Bank’s exposure in lending expected to touch US $ 87billion, while housing lending for the first half grew stealthily by 51% (over the same period of 2009). Government has proposed US $ 886 billion Infrastructure Investment Plan for the next seven years. State lending has increased from 1% of Brazilian GDP to 7%. This would further the deficit in its budget.
Brazilian government passed a Law to wrest control over Oil firms. The increase in oil price fixed by the Government will force Peteroleo Brasilerio to raise $ 65 billion in equity to pay the Government and to finance capital investment needed for exploiting its sub salt Tupi Oil resources. The difference of amount of US $ 42.5 billion received by overcharging is accounted as revenue, but would constitute 2.8% of the GDP. This covers up the fiscal deficit to the extent of 2.8% of GDP.
The lending of money by the state owned banks and Petrobras cash subsidy would make Brazilian deficit postulation at 10-12% of the GDP.
Yet, unlike the U.S. and British economies that have suffered under deficits of this magnitude, the Brazilian economy is in the middle of a roaring boom, with projected GDP growth of 7.8% for this year.
It's not as if Brazil was under-indebted, either; the excessive public debt nearly sent the country into bankruptcy in 2002, and the leeway before debt repeats the process is less than Brazilian commentators seem to think.
The road economic policy will take in Brazil would culminate with the election results which are due in October. If Centrist come to power, a favourable private sector policy without prolifigating public spending will be the central theme of the Economic policy. However, if a Socialist were to be elected to power, they could carry the country to high government spending and income redistribution. The Road map to peruse the current policies has been already set out. Monetary policy would quickly change if an inflationist comes to power.
However, with a true public-sector deficit of 10% of GDP and public spending that's already the highest in Latin America, there isn't much room to expand the state sector before the country runs into big trouble. While commodity prices keep rising, the commodity-dependent Brazil will at least be able to borrow the money it needs.
But if commodity prices falter, a crisis of confidence would be more or less inevitable.
There are positives. Brazil's central bank continues to maintain an admirably sound interest-rate policy, which has kept the short-term rate - currently 10.75% - far above the current inflation level of roughly 5%. That has prevented the inflationary spiral that would otherwise be well underway.
Brazil has had these bursts of growth before, and they have always been ended by a debt crisis followed by a period of forced austerity that has wiped out the previous boom's income gains and worsened the country's huge inequality.
For Brazilian investors and citizens alike, that will certainly be a pity after such a strong run. . But Brazil is currently regarded as one of the world's four great growth economies, and under current policies, that "high fashion" image that has buoyed its economy needed tinkering, if it has to continue to be the ‘Country to Watch tommorrow’
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Bangaluru, the beauty that has faded?

Banagaluru had a salubrious climate throughout the Year, and was a wonder city hailed as the Pensioners’ paradise. Its blooming orchards, greenery, perched trees in full bloom, flame of the forest, mallige, sampigee, and pleasant weather, will make Bangaluru, one of the best holiday locations. The British built a Cantonment, and many towns in Bangaluru East resemble English counties with a number of Churches built in Anglican architectural style, as vestiges of a splendoured Past. Besides the sobriquet of Garden City, parks, gardens, tree-lined streets and quaint buildings make up for Bangalore’s yesterdays, while the other face is that of a cosmopolitan city brimming with multi-national call centers, burgeoning software industry, imposing buildings, hep pubs, cafes, shopping arcades. Bangaluru is a City of Contrasts.
Most of the retireed people made a beeline to this prosperous town with temples, churches, and mosques. Kampagowda Road was well known for its location of cinema halls. The Cubban Park with its plants and flowery gardens was an epitome of a big orchard. Lal Bagh, which was one of the rarest gardens in India, had a historical touch, as it was here that Smt Indira Gandhi broke away from the Congress establishment to form Congress Indira. Its glass house is vivid with history. The Bull temple near here is world famous. Vidhan Soudha, red-sandstone Attara Kacheri, Tipu’s Palace, Ulsoor Lake, Sankey Boat Club, Bull Temple, ISKON Temple, Prasanna Anjaneya Temple, Infant Jesus church are some of Bangaluru’s attractions.. Jalahalli has India’s airforce camps. Banguluru had central investments like HAL, BEML, BHEL, etc. Peenya, Krishna Raja Puram, Yeshwantpur, Tumkur Road accommodated SMEs. The Devanahalli International Airport is built on PPP model. The Metro Rail will soon add another dimension to the City’s CBD.
It was this town, with its hoary past and cool climate, which had grown beyond its size. The Greater Bangalore had grown, and small houses in big compounds have been raced to the ground to make way for concrete jungles, the biggest malls with fancied western manufactured goods are available here, and the latest cars sneeze past one another. The road is chocked with traffic, it takes almost ½ an hour to cross the Indian Institute of Science to Yeshwantpur Road and drive past Metro. The Road from ISKON to Rajajinagar at least takes 40 minutes for you to cross. The traffic on Mysore Road from Vijayanagar to Kalasipalayam Bridge will take not less than 1 hour. In the peak hour traffic, you can always get lost. If you are a pedestrian, you need to cross the court, you will have to patiently wait for many minutes, before your turn comes.
“One half of our Society guzzles aerated beverages while the other has to do with playful of muddled water. On a three way lane of liberalization, privittization and globalization must provide safe pedestrian crossings for empowering India.” This comment may look little harsh, but nevertheless a fact. No state in India can backdate its achievements. It needs to attract capital and Corporates so that it could provide jobs to the vast majority of people. Bangaluru had excellent Colleges, institutes, polytechnics. Today States need to market their states and the Chief Minister must modify himself to a Corporate CEO. The successful State will attract capital through spelling out its cost advantage, through strategic and pointed marketing. At the macro level, the born again Federal covenant is altering the way CEOs of different States are evaluating their investment decisions. As location has an impact on almost every corporate activity, it is the basic cost driver. And since Cost advantages translate into competitiveness, location becomes a powerful tool in the new competitive economy. Location paradigms of businesses in post-liberalization India are adapting to the evolution of a more Federal structure. State’s objective parameters would provide a pointer to the emerging investment climate, especially Foreign Direct investments.
Bangaluru became the Silicon Valley of India. It had both the software czars like Wipro, Infosys, and more than 200 MNCs, who set up establishments in the State. Banguluru was well known destination in the software lexicon. It became the software capital of India. It had software parks, more out of the private initiative rather than through government investment. The state reaped a gold mine. The Services export which galvanized India’s export sector contributed more than US $ 50 billion, more than one-half coming from this place. The biggest software companies, and the renowned hardware companies, have their establishment here. This brought a glow to Bangalore. Urban explosion also saw a booming night life and an emerging pub culture. Concrete jungles took over vacant space. There was a convergence of people from all over the world. It became a cosmopolitan city. From a sleepy city it soon changed to sleepless city.
The book, the Blooming Bangalore by T P Issar, a bureaucrat had flowers in full bloom photographed from different parts of Bangalore. I have walked across roads where there was a rich canopy of trees provided shade to the pedestrians. Today two wheelers, three wheelers, autos, motor cars, buses, crumple for a little space on the roads, making walking along the roads a nightmare. Many of the trees have gone, many ways side parks disappeared, and cute houses with their distinct small orchards have disappeared. Pensioners’ paradise has become a pensioners curse. The mandis which were full of fresh vegetables is always crowded. Their places have been taken by the multiplex malls, and big chain stores that are into retail though remaining wholesale.
Bangaluru has become the Central business district (CBD) defining the city’s business character. Invariably, business houses prefer to have an office here as it adds to the corporate image.
The reign of Shri Ramakrishna Hegde, as Chief Minister was considered as a unique progressive period in the history of Karnataka. Shri S M Krishna laid the foundation stone for modernization of Bangaluru.
When we look at Bangaluru with its fast growing software, hardware, technology based industries which robbed it of its charm, are these software czars responsible for making the pensioner’s paradise into a buzzling town? Has software industry paid a price for robbing Banguluru of its old charm? An old yet famous photographer Shri Kamat, told foreigners when they came to get old Bangaluru photos from him:” Most Bangaloreans do not frequent pubs, do not own computers or do not shop in the commercial district”(His photo of old Sampige st reproduced).
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