Are our Penal Code and Criminal Procedure out-dated?
The Court had taken cognizance of the offences of defiance against Arunditi Roy and others for their speeches made in a Seminar “Azadi: The Only Way” wherein the noted writer is stated to have strongly opined on the alleged military excesses in Kashmir. On the basis of a Compliant filed under Sec 156(3) of the Cr PC at the Tilak Marg Police Station against the writer Arunditi Roy, Syed Geelani, Varavara Rao, SAR Geelani and some others who made speeches which were anti-Indian Statements when no action was taken by the Police Station, the case was brought before the Metropolitan Magistrate who asked Police to book the culprits under the relevant Criminal procedure Code and file cases against them in a competent Court of Law, after examining the documents produced before him.
Sec 156 of the Cr P C, 1973 states:
(1) Any officer in charge of a police station may, without the order of a Magistrate, investigate any cognizable case which a court having jurisdiction over the local area within the limits of such station would have power to inquire into or try under the provisions of Chapter XIII.
(2) No proceeding of a police officer in any such case shall at any stage be called in question on the ground that the case was one, which such officer was not empowered under this section to investigate.
(3) Any Magistrate empowered under section 190 may order such an investigation as above mentioned.
Union Law Minister M Veerappa Moily slammed Roy’s speech as “unfortunate” and said "Freedom of speech cannot violate the patriotic sentiments of the people and country.” The government maintains that peacefully making pro-Azadi speeches does not amount to sedition but inciting hatred through inflammatory oratory in an already emotionally charged atmosphere in the Valley may lead to violence. However, when the Police filed a report in the Metropolitan Magistrate’s Court that the speeches were not inflammatory and no offence under sedition could be made out, the Magistrate who had seen the documents chided the Police for filing a wrong report.
Act of Sedition appears in Chapter VI of First Schedule (Offence against the State) which is a cognizable non bailable offence that is defined in Sec 124 (A) of IPC. The law defines Section 124A of IPC as “whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by signs, or by visible representation, or otherwise, brings or attempts to bring into hatred or contempt, or excites or attempts to excite disaffection towards, the Government established by law in India can be booked under sedition.”
In today’s Hindu, (Nov 28, 2010) Arundhati Roy has described the various wordings of Jawaharlal Nehru, which she characterized as amounting to sedition. In his statement in the Security Council (in the 765th meeting of SC on 24 January 1957), Shri V K Krishna Menon committed that India believed in honouring international commitments and obligations it has undertaken.
Perhaps, Arundhati might be referring to the agreements, both oral and written that were arrived at regarding partition of India into India and Pakistan. Hindu majority regions which had a Muslim King, would decide for it whether it would cede to India or Pakistan. Junagadh, Hyderabad, Kashmir had identical problems. Junagadh was a Hindu territory with Muslim King, Hyderabad ditto, while Kashmir had a Hindu King. The case of Kashmir was different in so much that the Pakistan army inflicted a military attack, and to defend the Country, the Maharaja of Kashmir, through an act of accession, acceded to India with a signed Instrument of Accession. He asked India’s help to repulse the invaders. Once this was done, the Pakistan army was repulsed, even though they occupy a chunk of land in Azad Kashmir or what is called as Pakistan occupied Kashmir, even today. Pakistan was West Pakistan and East Pakistan(14 August 1947). Today, East Pakistan is ruled by its own people and ceded from Pakistan and became Bangladesh. Therefore, when there was an aggression, and Pakistan started it, they jumped the gun, and today, they have no locus standi in any part of Kashmir. They have waged innumerable Wars with India. The unrest in Kashmir is largely due to the broad propaganda of the jihad leaders. To say that there is wanton attack on Indian soil, the military should keep quiet cannot be termed as a genuine freedom of expression.
It is true, that the Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi was tried for Sedition in 1922; then the Mahatma had said “Section 124 A, under which I am happily charged, is perhaps the prince among the political sections of the Indian Penal Code designed to suppress the liberty of the citizen.”
In his trial Gandhi has clearly stated that if one had “no affection for a person or system, one should be free to give the fullest expression to his disaffection, so long as he does not contemplate, promote, or incite to violence.”
“Some of the most loved of India’s patriots have been convicted under it. I consider it a privilege, therefore, to be charged under that section,” he said.
Is this Section deterring free speech, guaranteed under the Fundamental Rights in the Constitution? Activists argue that sedition cases rarely stand in a court of law and that there should be clear demarcation between offences committed by cross-border terrorists opening fire on innocent citizens and citizens voicing dissatisfaction with governance. They should not fall under the purview of one common law.
Social activists have slammed Section 124A as “draconian”, pitching for freedom of speech and expression in a non-military state. The draconian laws should it remain in a sovereign, democratic Republic Statute?
The damage done to Tata through the release of Nira Radira tapes selectively is another infringement and consequently, the Right to Life which includes Right to privacy, had been breached in a callous manner. How did the Income Tax tapes come into the possession of ordinary people and electronic media already tainted for their role in the 1.73 lakh Cr pilferage? I think the Rights of the people are supreme. If the purpose of the IT department was to unearth fraudulent deeds, they should undertake to do that, and not leak sensitive tapes selectively. The Supreme Court should get into the nexus, culpability must be fixed. Guilty must be given deterrent punishment.
It is high time, we need to update our penal Code and Criminal procedure Code. We are a sovereign independent Republic. The people of India are Supreme in India. For it is the “People of India who gave unto ourselves the Constitution of India”.
*************
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Welcome President Obama to India
As we brace to welcome Obama, the President of the United States of America, who brought hope but one year down the line, less cheer as he celebrates the aftermath of his assuming charge of the largest democracy in the World. The recent elections where, the Democrats lost majority in the House of the People, but managed to maintain a slight upper lead over the Republicans in the Senate. Number of fortress fell as Republicans candidates won the Governorship by a convincing margin.
One year ago, people thought that the regime of Obama will open up vistas. As the first black President in the United States, he will change the geography of the greatest nation where democracy of the people, by the people, to the people is the gospel of the Bible.
Today, the economy continues to be in the titters. Even though China has overtaken America as the greatest exporter with exports worth US $ 1.25 trillion, and Germany with US $ 1.05 trillion is ahead of America which stands at the 3 rd place with 1.04 trillion. Though the dollar has depreciated against almost all currencies, it stays mobile and strong even though penultimate parity has decreased and Dollar has lost its sheen. More Countries including China has placed all the Balance of Trade dollars in the American treasury Bills. This is good and positive encouragement to the economy, as America need not print more paper money and reach hyperinflation, as wealth is with it.
All along, America as a country outsourced jobs, as the cost of labour compared to the outsourced labour is very high in the former compared to the latter. Indian software engineers get paid around $1.5 dollars/ hour against $ 40 which an American will demand. Further more, the quality of supply is assured as work is part of Agreement and not an agreement of Contract with an American for doing a Job.
Outsiders stretch their working hours and are flexible while the Americans will stand by the ethics of duties and responsibilities. There again, it is advantageous for America to outsource people rather than providing employment.
With loss of income from work, how do you spread money? The Economists believed that by giving low interest credit to the workers to improve their standard of living, there will be money flow from the Banks to the Services sector and it would cause an economic cycle causing an economic bloom. But nothing of that sort happened. The people, who helped themselves to easy Credit, couldn’t repay, and once there was a struck repayment, banks began to feel the absence of money flow to and fro. The Houses that were mortgaguged decreased in value to the Credit, as there was a huge fall in demand. The Net Present Worth began to lower than the Worth which was perceived by the Banks at the time of handing the Credit. When there was a large re-payment crisis, the Banks could not continue the stagnation of money flow, with the result, the Banks bubble burst. Though Government intervened, the Banks had to progress on stimulus which was entirely different from capital infusion. It just served as working capital. With an abnormal trade deficit, cost overruns in Afghanistan and Iraq, enhanced military spending to quell the anticipated terrorist attacks, dilapidated economy, America of the present day looks crest fallen like the America of 1929. Survival is difficult, and maintaining the economy is extremely Herculean, and removing the scar of the backlash of the 2 nd millennium is gargantuan. President Obama requires all the support if he has to marshal America to its growth decades. Time alone will tell, whether he is successful or he will go down in history as somebody who tried and tried and tried, but it Went with the Wind!
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Economic Phase-out avalanche?
The U.S. government, is perhaps stimulating growth in the moribund economy by stoking the fires of inflation. But by leaving interest rates low and buying up bonds - a policy known as quantitative easing (QE) - the U.S. Federal Reserve risks debasing the dollar, which could lead to a prolonged period of hyperinflation that would send prices skyrocketing.
Lower inflation warranted looser monetary Policy. Banks are willing and prepared to ease policy to boost inflation expectations shortly. The Government was keeping interest rates at record lows, and purchased $ 1.7 trillion of US securities to keep the economy in subdued humour. Another round of expectant quantitative easing would make the economy further sober.
The weary financial system, already hanging with bouts of flows of money, with further money flowing into the system, the Government may well be sowing the seeds of hyperinflation. With pumping in more and more Cash into the System, deficits of $1.3 trillion and additional QE of $1 trillion on the table, the odds are getting greater all the time that a bout of hyperinflation could be in the cards. Hyperinflation can be simply defined as very high inflation, a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. It usually occurs when monetary and fiscal authorities of a nation issue large quantities of money to pay for a large stream of government expenditures.
In numbers, hyperinflation could mean anything from a 100% cumulative inflation rate over three years to inflation exceeding 50% a month. For example, an inflation rate of 100% a month would reduce the value of a $20 bill to $2.50 in four months.
In order to sustain the economy, and bail out banks with $ 700 billion ‘Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) and a stimulus programme worth $ 787 billion to boost the battered economy, and launching of a near $ 1 trillion rescue of government backed housing authorities, the Government has racked up $ 12.7 trillion in debt guarantees. Without hard assets like Gold in store to back these guarantees, the only alternate for the Government is to print more money to meet its debt obligations.
Hyperinflation can also be viewed as a form of taxation. The most serious consequence of hyperinflation is the reallocation of wealth. It transfers wealth from the general public, which holds money, to the government, which issues money.
A few examples of predominant occurrence of hyperinflation in world economic history are recounted below:-
Germany or the Weimar Republic went through its worst inflation in 1923. The highest currency issued was a 100,000,000,000,000 Mark note, which was the equivalent of about US $ 25. The rate of inflation peaked at 346% per month, meaning prices doubled every two days. The main cause is believed to be the "London ultimatum" in May 1921, which demanded reparations in gold or foreign currency to be paid in annual installments of 2 billion gold marks plus 26% of the value of Germany's exports. Although the Government blamed the massive run up in prices in the hefty war reparations due as a result of the Treaty that ended World War I, many experts say and feel that those payments accounted for only a third of that Country’s deficit. Bankers and Foreign speculators exacerbated the price of escalation, which during the last half of 1922 saw the cost of living index soar from 41 to 685(increase by more than 16 times roughly). 60 marks to the US Dollar in the early 1921 to 8000 marks to a Dollar in Dec 1922. Paper mark/Gold ratio rose from 1 in 1921 to 1 trillion in 1923!
On July 22, 2008, the value of the Zimbabwe dollar had fallen to approximately 688 billion per US $ 1. After the country's independence, inflation was stable until Robert Mugabe began a program of land reforms that primarily focused on taking land from white farmers and redistributing those properties and assets to black farmers. Rampant hyperinflation ensued when this policy sent food production and revenues from exports of food plummeting;
Hyperinflation in post World War II Hungary may be the highest on record. In April 1946, prices zoomed higher by 195% every day, meaning they doubled every 15.6 hours. The war caused enormous costs and, later, even higher losses to the relatively small and open Hungarian economy. The national bank was practically under government control. The government spent more than it could raise in taxes and the central bank printed more paper money to finance the deficit.
America has the financial strength and capacity to keep the hyperinflation under raps by balancing its interest rates to keep runway inflation in check. However, unless watched, inflation tends to take off rather quickly. If the prices bubble in few short months, inflation would be a hard not to crack.
There are business people, who sensing inflation, convert money into stocks of commodities and hoard them, creating artificial scarcity in the Market;
Distortion of relative prices;
People tend to convert their assets into non monetary ones or keep their assets in relative stable foreign currency;.
People regard monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.
Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period.
Then how do people protect themselves from inflation and lowering of their purchasing Power.
Government need to control their free wheeling spending. Bring in discipline in spending. Reduce stimulus. Take action to prevent the rise in prices for hard assets. Take precaution against hoarding, high exchange of currency in the market.
India is in a similar plight, as the tweedledum and tweedledee Policy in raising and lowering interest rates, and meddling with the export stimulus, hazy decisions to bring down the Non Performing Assets (NPA) by writing off Crores of Rupees worth of loans from the agricultural debt, playing with the saving interest rates without appropriate planning in developing thrift. Hoarding in Food grains, edible oils, and indiscreet import of commodities including Crude and edible oils, increasing continuously the prices of petroleum products saying they are inevitable, and nervous cycle of food and common inflation, Consumer Price Index showing lazy upward movements, all show that India too is slowly entering the league of Countries where hyperinflation will make a foray. Better beware.
Lower inflation warranted looser monetary Policy. Banks are willing and prepared to ease policy to boost inflation expectations shortly. The Government was keeping interest rates at record lows, and purchased $ 1.7 trillion of US securities to keep the economy in subdued humour. Another round of expectant quantitative easing would make the economy further sober.
The weary financial system, already hanging with bouts of flows of money, with further money flowing into the system, the Government may well be sowing the seeds of hyperinflation. With pumping in more and more Cash into the System, deficits of $1.3 trillion and additional QE of $1 trillion on the table, the odds are getting greater all the time that a bout of hyperinflation could be in the cards. Hyperinflation can be simply defined as very high inflation, a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. It usually occurs when monetary and fiscal authorities of a nation issue large quantities of money to pay for a large stream of government expenditures.
In numbers, hyperinflation could mean anything from a 100% cumulative inflation rate over three years to inflation exceeding 50% a month. For example, an inflation rate of 100% a month would reduce the value of a $20 bill to $2.50 in four months.
In order to sustain the economy, and bail out banks with $ 700 billion ‘Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) and a stimulus programme worth $ 787 billion to boost the battered economy, and launching of a near $ 1 trillion rescue of government backed housing authorities, the Government has racked up $ 12.7 trillion in debt guarantees. Without hard assets like Gold in store to back these guarantees, the only alternate for the Government is to print more money to meet its debt obligations.
Hyperinflation can also be viewed as a form of taxation. The most serious consequence of hyperinflation is the reallocation of wealth. It transfers wealth from the general public, which holds money, to the government, which issues money.
A few examples of predominant occurrence of hyperinflation in world economic history are recounted below:-
Germany or the Weimar Republic went through its worst inflation in 1923. The highest currency issued was a 100,000,000,000,000 Mark note, which was the equivalent of about US $ 25. The rate of inflation peaked at 346% per month, meaning prices doubled every two days. The main cause is believed to be the "London ultimatum" in May 1921, which demanded reparations in gold or foreign currency to be paid in annual installments of 2 billion gold marks plus 26% of the value of Germany's exports. Although the Government blamed the massive run up in prices in the hefty war reparations due as a result of the Treaty that ended World War I, many experts say and feel that those payments accounted for only a third of that Country’s deficit. Bankers and Foreign speculators exacerbated the price of escalation, which during the last half of 1922 saw the cost of living index soar from 41 to 685(increase by more than 16 times roughly). 60 marks to the US Dollar in the early 1921 to 8000 marks to a Dollar in Dec 1922. Paper mark/Gold ratio rose from 1 in 1921 to 1 trillion in 1923!
On July 22, 2008, the value of the Zimbabwe dollar had fallen to approximately 688 billion per US $ 1. After the country's independence, inflation was stable until Robert Mugabe began a program of land reforms that primarily focused on taking land from white farmers and redistributing those properties and assets to black farmers. Rampant hyperinflation ensued when this policy sent food production and revenues from exports of food plummeting;
Hyperinflation in post World War II Hungary may be the highest on record. In April 1946, prices zoomed higher by 195% every day, meaning they doubled every 15.6 hours. The war caused enormous costs and, later, even higher losses to the relatively small and open Hungarian economy. The national bank was practically under government control. The government spent more than it could raise in taxes and the central bank printed more paper money to finance the deficit.
America has the financial strength and capacity to keep the hyperinflation under raps by balancing its interest rates to keep runway inflation in check. However, unless watched, inflation tends to take off rather quickly. If the prices bubble in few short months, inflation would be a hard not to crack.
There are business people, who sensing inflation, convert money into stocks of commodities and hoard them, creating artificial scarcity in the Market;
Distortion of relative prices;
People tend to convert their assets into non monetary ones or keep their assets in relative stable foreign currency;.
People regard monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.
Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period.
Then how do people protect themselves from inflation and lowering of their purchasing Power.
Government need to control their free wheeling spending. Bring in discipline in spending. Reduce stimulus. Take action to prevent the rise in prices for hard assets. Take precaution against hoarding, high exchange of currency in the market.
India is in a similar plight, as the tweedledum and tweedledee Policy in raising and lowering interest rates, and meddling with the export stimulus, hazy decisions to bring down the Non Performing Assets (NPA) by writing off Crores of Rupees worth of loans from the agricultural debt, playing with the saving interest rates without appropriate planning in developing thrift. Hoarding in Food grains, edible oils, and indiscreet import of commodities including Crude and edible oils, increasing continuously the prices of petroleum products saying they are inevitable, and nervous cycle of food and common inflation, Consumer Price Index showing lazy upward movements, all show that India too is slowly entering the league of Countries where hyperinflation will make a foray. Better beware.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Crisis of Confidence?
The World Trade Organization(WTO) has revised its projection for World trade growth upwards to 13.5 per cent in 2010, following faster than expected recovery in trade flow so far this Year. “The surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism”, says the Report. However, WTO in its published report in early March, 2010 had forecast global trade volume to expand 10 % in the current fiscal. Merchandise exports of developed economies are predicted to expand 11.5 per cent in volume terms while the rest of the world including emerging economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States, is expected to inch towards a growth of 16.5 per cent.
The 13.5per cent growth in global trade volume would be the fastest year-on-year expansion recorded since 1950. However, the current expansion is on a low base of the previous year (2009) when the world trade volume was severely depressed. The world exports had plunged 12.2 per cent in 2009-10. The fastest YoY growth so far since 1950 was the 11.8 per cent growth recorded in 1976, one year after the then unprecedented decline of 7.3% in 1975.
The total world trade in 2009-10 was in the region of $ 31.2 trillion, against which China topped the Trade table with $1.2 trillion, Germany came second with $ 1.16 trillion and United States sliding to the third positon with exports at $1.05 trillion. Brazil was ranked (23) with exports worth $ 153 billion, Russia (11 position)($303 billion), India (18th position)($176.5billion). The total export trade realized US $ 12.5 trillion.
World merchandise trade rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2010, boosted by a recovery of GDP in both developed nd developing economies. However, many economists expect output growth to slacken in the Second half with the expiry of fiscal stimulus measures and the winding down of the inventory cycle. The slackening of trade growth in the second half accentuate that an eminent fall in the rate of growth in GDP in developed Countries. While there can be risks of downside, particularly in case an unforeseen financial or microscopic shock triggers another economic downturn, the Report hopes that the upside potentials could trigger better than expected growth in the Second half.
Coincidentally, the Bloomberg quarterly Global Poll forecasts predicts that the United States will lag behind the emerging markets of Brazil, China and India as a preferred destination for investment, having slid from the first position it held during the last Poll conducted three months ago. US economy has been rated as in the fourth place with Brazil and China tied for first, and India in the third Place. The slide in sentiment came as US GDP slid to 1.6% in the Second quarter from 3.7% in the first quarter. Expectations for2011 are down to a median forecast of2.5% from 2.9% in first quarter of 2011-12. The Survey showed that there were dim chances of double dip recession and that United States was slowly on to the path of slow yet steady growth. US people are wary of US budget deficits as a result, crisis of confidence would provoke a dramatic increase in interest rates within two years. The present budget deficit is forecast to be around $ 1.47 trillion for2010 and $1.42 trillion for 2011.
Even though stimulus offered through the various Schemes of the Foreign Trade Policy was evenly balanced, the downsizing of Duty Drawback rates for crucial sectors when it is struggling to find competitive space in the international market show that the policy makers have not become wiser by the bad experiences of the Past. While China’s exports are clocked $1.2 trillion, India has an export figure of just US $ 176.50 billion, the bulk of which comes from textiles and leather segments. As the dollar rate parity with the Rupee is slowly widening, choking inflation is already bleeding the bottom line of Cost of production, Government’s insensitiveness to the export related problems will cost the Country dear in terms of Balance of Trade and BoP, resulting in depletion of Foreign Exchange Reserves. When huge fund outlay is ear-marked for Populist schemes, the export sector becoming cost prohibitive would lead to India loosing advantage in world Trade.
The 13.5per cent growth in global trade volume would be the fastest year-on-year expansion recorded since 1950. However, the current expansion is on a low base of the previous year (2009) when the world trade volume was severely depressed. The world exports had plunged 12.2 per cent in 2009-10. The fastest YoY growth so far since 1950 was the 11.8 per cent growth recorded in 1976, one year after the then unprecedented decline of 7.3% in 1975.
The total world trade in 2009-10 was in the region of $ 31.2 trillion, against which China topped the Trade table with $1.2 trillion, Germany came second with $ 1.16 trillion and United States sliding to the third positon with exports at $1.05 trillion. Brazil was ranked (23) with exports worth $ 153 billion, Russia (11 position)($303 billion), India (18th position)($176.5billion). The total export trade realized US $ 12.5 trillion.
World merchandise trade rose sharply in the first two quarters of 2010, boosted by a recovery of GDP in both developed nd developing economies. However, many economists expect output growth to slacken in the Second half with the expiry of fiscal stimulus measures and the winding down of the inventory cycle. The slackening of trade growth in the second half accentuate that an eminent fall in the rate of growth in GDP in developed Countries. While there can be risks of downside, particularly in case an unforeseen financial or microscopic shock triggers another economic downturn, the Report hopes that the upside potentials could trigger better than expected growth in the Second half.
Coincidentally, the Bloomberg quarterly Global Poll forecasts predicts that the United States will lag behind the emerging markets of Brazil, China and India as a preferred destination for investment, having slid from the first position it held during the last Poll conducted three months ago. US economy has been rated as in the fourth place with Brazil and China tied for first, and India in the third Place. The slide in sentiment came as US GDP slid to 1.6% in the Second quarter from 3.7% in the first quarter. Expectations for2011 are down to a median forecast of2.5% from 2.9% in first quarter of 2011-12. The Survey showed that there were dim chances of double dip recession and that United States was slowly on to the path of slow yet steady growth. US people are wary of US budget deficits as a result, crisis of confidence would provoke a dramatic increase in interest rates within two years. The present budget deficit is forecast to be around $ 1.47 trillion for2010 and $1.42 trillion for 2011.
Even though stimulus offered through the various Schemes of the Foreign Trade Policy was evenly balanced, the downsizing of Duty Drawback rates for crucial sectors when it is struggling to find competitive space in the international market show that the policy makers have not become wiser by the bad experiences of the Past. While China’s exports are clocked $1.2 trillion, India has an export figure of just US $ 176.50 billion, the bulk of which comes from textiles and leather segments. As the dollar rate parity with the Rupee is slowly widening, choking inflation is already bleeding the bottom line of Cost of production, Government’s insensitiveness to the export related problems will cost the Country dear in terms of Balance of Trade and BoP, resulting in depletion of Foreign Exchange Reserves. When huge fund outlay is ear-marked for Populist schemes, the export sector becoming cost prohibitive would lead to India loosing advantage in world Trade.
CWG: Don't look with squint eye!
There has been lot of slur to India as a Country which is slated to host the prestigious Commonwealth games. From the take off stage, the games, conduct of the games, Chairman of the Indian Olympic Association have all been mired in one controversy or the other. Added to that, the Ministry of Sports looked the other way at every event connected with the organization of the Commonwealth games. Worst still, India’s former Sports Minister, even predicted that the ‘Commonwealth games shall fail.’
The games are scheduled at the worst of the worst times. The East based monsoon is slated during this period. There is already terrible floods and destruction of crops resulting in losses. As it is, Agriculture industry which is the back-bone of Indian economy is in adverse days due to plethora of reasons. The date(s) of the games coincided with the pronouncing of the Ayodhya verdict regarding a civil land dispute caste. The post law and order situation appears to be grim. Some terrorist groups have threatened to disrupt the games.
In the meantime, our overzealous electronic media does not waste a single space in their telecasts by picturizing one or the other defect; showing the shabby bathrooms, washing closet, collapse of the overhead bridge to the Nehru Stadium, breaking up of Plaster of Paris in the hall meant for weightlifting events, comments by veterans including Politicians. This has already presented the image of India being sullied in the international eyes as Poor organizers, an event steeped in corruption, unhygienic surroundings, mosquito menace, incomplete infrastructure, and many faults here and there.
Prime Minister, it is shown in the media, is seen taking rounds of various stadia where events are to take place. He has also warned Chief Minsiter, Delhi, Sports Minister, GoI, and President of Indian Olympic Association to act in tandem and finish the job instead of out-pouring their wrath openly.
India needs to take advantage of such a massive event for which Crores of Rupees of tax payers money is being spent. There must be accountability between the Organizers and the Government. If a private body like BCCI can conduct a IPL most successfully with its own generated funds, why can’t Government in association with these Sports bodies organize an international event.
Individual members of the different Countries have started withdrawing from the event. Different countries have expressed their inhibitions in participation. We do not know whether they will come.
With all these failings, India which Obama saw as a sparkling booming growth oriented economy, Indian image will suffer. And the contributors to the fallen image will be Indians themselves. Very sad, indeed.
The games are scheduled at the worst of the worst times. The East based monsoon is slated during this period. There is already terrible floods and destruction of crops resulting in losses. As it is, Agriculture industry which is the back-bone of Indian economy is in adverse days due to plethora of reasons. The date(s) of the games coincided with the pronouncing of the Ayodhya verdict regarding a civil land dispute caste. The post law and order situation appears to be grim. Some terrorist groups have threatened to disrupt the games.
In the meantime, our overzealous electronic media does not waste a single space in their telecasts by picturizing one or the other defect; showing the shabby bathrooms, washing closet, collapse of the overhead bridge to the Nehru Stadium, breaking up of Plaster of Paris in the hall meant for weightlifting events, comments by veterans including Politicians. This has already presented the image of India being sullied in the international eyes as Poor organizers, an event steeped in corruption, unhygienic surroundings, mosquito menace, incomplete infrastructure, and many faults here and there.
Prime Minister, it is shown in the media, is seen taking rounds of various stadia where events are to take place. He has also warned Chief Minsiter, Delhi, Sports Minister, GoI, and President of Indian Olympic Association to act in tandem and finish the job instead of out-pouring their wrath openly.
India needs to take advantage of such a massive event for which Crores of Rupees of tax payers money is being spent. There must be accountability between the Organizers and the Government. If a private body like BCCI can conduct a IPL most successfully with its own generated funds, why can’t Government in association with these Sports bodies organize an international event.
Individual members of the different Countries have started withdrawing from the event. Different countries have expressed their inhibitions in participation. We do not know whether they will come.
With all these failings, India which Obama saw as a sparkling booming growth oriented economy, Indian image will suffer. And the contributors to the fallen image will be Indians themselves. Very sad, indeed.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Is Brazil entering the economic trap?
Is Brazil heading into the eye of a storm?
Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Brazil was a great country to invest. Returns were equivalent of 160%. But, this famous forward looking growing economy faces problems, if immediately not rectified.
Will Brazil remain a favourite of BRIC countries...?
Brazilian government brought in changes in its business approach. The Parliamentary and Presidential election is due soon. Official government spending was budgeted to grow by a moderate 10.7%, and was subject to further trimming to accommodate more spending. Brazil’s state owned Companies, which has been accelerating in recent years (119), is set to increase further by 32%. Brazilian Development Bank’s exposure in lending expected to touch US $ 87billion, while housing lending for the first half grew stealthily by 51% (over the same period of 2009). Government has proposed US $ 886 billion Infrastructure Investment Plan for the next seven years. State lending has increased from 1% of Brazilian GDP to 7%. This would further the deficit in its budget.
Brazilian government passed a Law to wrest control over Oil firms. The increase in oil price fixed by the Government will force Peteroleo Brasilerio to raise $ 65 billion in equity to pay the Government and to finance capital investment needed for exploiting its sub salt Tupi Oil resources. The difference of amount of US $ 42.5 billion received by overcharging is accounted as revenue, but would constitute 2.8% of the GDP. This covers up the fiscal deficit to the extent of 2.8% of GDP.
The lending of money by the state owned banks and Petrobras cash subsidy would make Brazilian deficit postulation at 10-12% of the GDP.
Yet, unlike the U.S. and British economies that have suffered under deficits of this magnitude, the Brazilian economy is in the middle of a roaring boom, with projected GDP growth of 7.8% for this year.
It's not as if Brazil was under-indebted, either; the excessive public debt nearly sent the country into bankruptcy in 2002, and the leeway before debt repeats the process is less than Brazilian commentators seem to think.
The road economic policy will take in Brazil would culminate with the election results which are due in October. If Centrist come to power, a favourable private sector policy without prolifigating public spending will be the central theme of the Economic policy. However, if a Socialist were to be elected to power, they could carry the country to high government spending and income redistribution. The Road map to peruse the current policies has been already set out. Monetary policy would quickly change if an inflationist comes to power.
However, with a true public-sector deficit of 10% of GDP and public spending that's already the highest in Latin America, there isn't much room to expand the state sector before the country runs into big trouble. While commodity prices keep rising, the commodity-dependent Brazil will at least be able to borrow the money it needs.
But if commodity prices falter, a crisis of confidence would be more or less inevitable.
There are positives. Brazil's central bank continues to maintain an admirably sound interest-rate policy, which has kept the short-term rate - currently 10.75% - far above the current inflation level of roughly 5%. That has prevented the inflationary spiral that would otherwise be well underway.
Brazil has had these bursts of growth before, and they have always been ended by a debt crisis followed by a period of forced austerity that has wiped out the previous boom's income gains and worsened the country's huge inequality.
For Brazilian investors and citizens alike, that will certainly be a pity after such a strong run. . But Brazil is currently regarded as one of the world's four great growth economies, and under current policies, that "high fashion" image that has buoyed its economy needed tinkering, if it has to continue to be the ‘Country to Watch tommorrow’
Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Brazil was a great country to invest. Returns were equivalent of 160%. But, this famous forward looking growing economy faces problems, if immediately not rectified.
Will Brazil remain a favourite of BRIC countries...?
Brazilian government brought in changes in its business approach. The Parliamentary and Presidential election is due soon. Official government spending was budgeted to grow by a moderate 10.7%, and was subject to further trimming to accommodate more spending. Brazil’s state owned Companies, which has been accelerating in recent years (119), is set to increase further by 32%. Brazilian Development Bank’s exposure in lending expected to touch US $ 87billion, while housing lending for the first half grew stealthily by 51% (over the same period of 2009). Government has proposed US $ 886 billion Infrastructure Investment Plan for the next seven years. State lending has increased from 1% of Brazilian GDP to 7%. This would further the deficit in its budget.
Brazilian government passed a Law to wrest control over Oil firms. The increase in oil price fixed by the Government will force Peteroleo Brasilerio to raise $ 65 billion in equity to pay the Government and to finance capital investment needed for exploiting its sub salt Tupi Oil resources. The difference of amount of US $ 42.5 billion received by overcharging is accounted as revenue, but would constitute 2.8% of the GDP. This covers up the fiscal deficit to the extent of 2.8% of GDP.
The lending of money by the state owned banks and Petrobras cash subsidy would make Brazilian deficit postulation at 10-12% of the GDP.
Yet, unlike the U.S. and British economies that have suffered under deficits of this magnitude, the Brazilian economy is in the middle of a roaring boom, with projected GDP growth of 7.8% for this year.
It's not as if Brazil was under-indebted, either; the excessive public debt nearly sent the country into bankruptcy in 2002, and the leeway before debt repeats the process is less than Brazilian commentators seem to think.
The road economic policy will take in Brazil would culminate with the election results which are due in October. If Centrist come to power, a favourable private sector policy without prolifigating public spending will be the central theme of the Economic policy. However, if a Socialist were to be elected to power, they could carry the country to high government spending and income redistribution. The Road map to peruse the current policies has been already set out. Monetary policy would quickly change if an inflationist comes to power.
However, with a true public-sector deficit of 10% of GDP and public spending that's already the highest in Latin America, there isn't much room to expand the state sector before the country runs into big trouble. While commodity prices keep rising, the commodity-dependent Brazil will at least be able to borrow the money it needs.
But if commodity prices falter, a crisis of confidence would be more or less inevitable.
There are positives. Brazil's central bank continues to maintain an admirably sound interest-rate policy, which has kept the short-term rate - currently 10.75% - far above the current inflation level of roughly 5%. That has prevented the inflationary spiral that would otherwise be well underway.
Brazil has had these bursts of growth before, and they have always been ended by a debt crisis followed by a period of forced austerity that has wiped out the previous boom's income gains and worsened the country's huge inequality.
For Brazilian investors and citizens alike, that will certainly be a pity after such a strong run. . But Brazil is currently regarded as one of the world's four great growth economies, and under current policies, that "high fashion" image that has buoyed its economy needed tinkering, if it has to continue to be the ‘Country to Watch tommorrow’
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Bangaluru, the beauty that has faded?
Banagaluru had a salubrious climate throughout the Year, and was a wonder city hailed as the Pensioners’ paradise. Its blooming orchards, greenery, perched trees in full bloom, flame of the forest, mallige, sampigee, and pleasant weather, will make Bangaluru, one of the best holiday locations. The British built a Cantonment, and many towns in Bangaluru East resemble English counties with a number of Churches built in Anglican architectural style, as vestiges of a splendoured Past. Besides the sobriquet of Garden City, parks, gardens, tree-lined streets and quaint buildings make up for Bangalore’s yesterdays, while the other face is that of a cosmopolitan city brimming with multi-national call centers, burgeoning software industry, imposing buildings, hep pubs, cafes, shopping arcades. Bangaluru is a City of Contrasts.
Most of the retireed people made a beeline to this prosperous town with temples, churches, and mosques. Kampagowda Road was well known for its location of cinema halls. The Cubban Park with its plants and flowery gardens was an epitome of a big orchard. Lal Bagh, which was one of the rarest gardens in India, had a historical touch, as it was here that Smt Indira Gandhi broke away from the Congress establishment to form Congress Indira. Its glass house is vivid with history. The Bull temple near here is world famous. Vidhan Soudha, red-sandstone Attara Kacheri, Tipu’s Palace, Ulsoor Lake, Sankey Boat Club, Bull Temple, ISKON Temple, Prasanna Anjaneya Temple, Infant Jesus church are some of Bangaluru’s attractions.. Jalahalli has India’s airforce camps. Banguluru had central investments like HAL, BEML, BHEL, etc. Peenya, Krishna Raja Puram, Yeshwantpur, Tumkur Road accommodated SMEs. The Devanahalli International Airport is built on PPP model. The Metro Rail will soon add another dimension to the City’s CBD.
It was this town, with its hoary past and cool climate, which had grown beyond its size. The Greater Bangalore had grown, and small houses in big compounds have been raced to the ground to make way for concrete jungles, the biggest malls with fancied western manufactured goods are available here, and the latest cars sneeze past one another. The road is chocked with traffic, it takes almost ½ an hour to cross the Indian Institute of Science to Yeshwantpur Road and drive past Metro. The Road from ISKON to Rajajinagar at least takes 40 minutes for you to cross. The traffic on Mysore Road from Vijayanagar to Kalasipalayam Bridge will take not less than 1 hour. In the peak hour traffic, you can always get lost. If you are a pedestrian, you need to cross the court, you will have to patiently wait for many minutes, before your turn comes.
“One half of our Society guzzles aerated beverages while the other has to do with playful of muddled water. On a three way lane of liberalization, privittization and globalization must provide safe pedestrian crossings for empowering India.” This comment may look little harsh, but nevertheless a fact. No state in India can backdate its achievements. It needs to attract capital and Corporates so that it could provide jobs to the vast majority of people. Bangaluru had excellent Colleges, institutes, polytechnics. Today States need to market their states and the Chief Minister must modify himself to a Corporate CEO. The successful State will attract capital through spelling out its cost advantage, through strategic and pointed marketing. At the macro level, the born again Federal covenant is altering the way CEOs of different States are evaluating their investment decisions. As location has an impact on almost every corporate activity, it is the basic cost driver. And since Cost advantages translate into competitiveness, location becomes a powerful tool in the new competitive economy. Location paradigms of businesses in post-liberalization India are adapting to the evolution of a more Federal structure. State’s objective parameters would provide a pointer to the emerging investment climate, especially Foreign Direct investments.
Bangaluru became the Silicon Valley of India. It had both the software czars like Wipro, Infosys, and more than 200 MNCs, who set up establishments in the State. Banguluru was well known destination in the software lexicon. It became the software capital of India. It had software parks, more out of the private initiative rather than through government investment. The state reaped a gold mine. The Services export which galvanized India’s export sector contributed more than US $ 50 billion, more than one-half coming from this place. The biggest software companies, and the renowned hardware companies, have their establishment here. This brought a glow to Bangalore. Urban explosion also saw a booming night life and an emerging pub culture. Concrete jungles took over vacant space. There was a convergence of people from all over the world. It became a cosmopolitan city. From a sleepy city it soon changed to sleepless city.
The book, the Blooming Bangalore by T P Issar, a bureaucrat had flowers in full bloom photographed from different parts of Bangalore. I have walked across roads where there was a rich canopy of trees provided shade to the pedestrians. Today two wheelers, three wheelers, autos, motor cars, buses, crumple for a little space on the roads, making walking along the roads a nightmare. Many of the trees have gone, many ways side parks disappeared, and cute houses with their distinct small orchards have disappeared. Pensioners’ paradise has become a pensioners curse. The mandis which were full of fresh vegetables is always crowded. Their places have been taken by the multiplex malls, and big chain stores that are into retail though remaining wholesale.
Bangaluru has become the Central business district (CBD) defining the city’s business character. Invariably, business houses prefer to have an office here as it adds to the corporate image.
The reign of Shri Ramakrishna Hegde, as Chief Minister was considered as a unique progressive period in the history of Karnataka. Shri S M Krishna laid the foundation stone for modernization of Bangaluru.
When we look at Bangaluru with its fast growing software, hardware, technology based industries which robbed it of its charm, are these software czars responsible for making the pensioner’s paradise into a buzzling town? Has software industry paid a price for robbing Banguluru of its old charm? An old yet famous photographer Shri Kamat, told foreigners when they came to get old Bangaluru photos from him:” Most Bangaloreans do not frequent pubs, do not own computers or do not shop in the commercial district”(His photo of old Sampige st reproduced).
Friday, September 3, 2010
India's paradox wilderliness?
We hear government telling us that the high presence inflation in food has dwarfed economic growth. We also hear government telling us that in view of the perilous production of oil seeds and their conversion into edible oil, we needed to import a high quality to break-even between supply and demand. Our Planning experts are telling us that food grains growth would stabilize once the monsoon hits India. Monsoon did hit India, and very severely that the flood devastated many areas with its fury. Even the national capital was not spared.
The Supreme Court had faulted the government for having amassed food grains more than the stock required and due to clumsy storing, the entire stores got devastated by the rats that ate what was supposed to be given for distribution amongst the poor through Public Distribution System and through Antodya Anna Yojana. The Court ordered their free distribution with a time tag. But our iron clad bureaucracy is sitting tight and is in the process of devising a plan to distribute the food grains. When and how will be the reason that there will be delay?
The Planning Commission is of the view that the total BPL families in India are around 6.25 Cr. However, the States do not agree. They estimate the BPL families at 10.7 Cr. Why a head count was not taken is any body’s guess. As against Antdodya Anna Yojana, the beneficiaries entitled to benefits has been reackoned as 2.5 Cr. However, the State government has been able to enlist 1.82 Cr households, and they have been given Ration cards. While 0.68 Cr needs to be accounted, the subsidy for 2.5 Cr households have been calculated, and the amount budgeted and will be released pro rata. What will happen to the budget relating to 0.68 Cr will lie in the wilderliness.
Government, according to Economic Survey (Page 205, Table 8.29) says that in 2008-9, the production of oil seeds was 281.57 lakh tones of which edible oil was produced to the extent of 85.98 lakh tones, while 67.20 lakh tones was imported of which 83% was accounted by Palm Oil. So the available oil was 153.18 lakh tones when the actual requirement was only 132.80 lakh tones. The imported oil in surplus was 20.38 lakh tones which accounted for 15.34% excess. During 2009-10, 255.09 lakh tones was the production of oil seeds and converted into edible oil was 82 lakh tones. The import figures went staggering to 101 lakh tones. The total available oil was 183 lakh tones against the requirement of 138.18 lakh tonne. The difference was 44.82 lakh tones which accounted for 32.44% in excess of demand. Another factor was these oil were imported at ‘nil’ duty for Crude and 7.5% for Refined against the normal 45% and 52.5% and the loss on this account was in the region of Rs 25,000 Cr. Added to this, government thought it wise to release Rs 15 per Kg on imported oil for release through PDS. The recurring expenditure stand at Rs 1,500 Cr!
The question that comes to the fore is why are we importing in excess of what is required. There will inevitably be a closing stock which will become next year’s opening stock. What happened to that? The excess of import during the next year, what will happen to that? To whom do these reserves sold or given?
During 2008-09 an amount of Rs 43,668.08 Cr was released as agricultural subsidies which grew by a staggering 39.69 % over 2007-8 and upto Dec 29, 2009, Rs 46,906.68 Cr was spent which was in excess of 7.42 % over the full year’s spending of 2008-9. This was the time, the Government announced time and again, food inflation going to double figures and crossing 16%. During the same period, our Planning Commission stood ground with the theory that India’s agricultural growth will be 4% and to reduce it in the last quarter to negative 0.20%. Just to upset them, the agricultural growth turned positive and recorded 0.20% growth.
Our Government talks of austerity. Government is committed to fiscal consolidation. Bringing down the fiscal deficit from 5.5%. Our Planning Commission talks of apparatus to enhance growth through paradigm change growth models. While all these are professed, there is waste, excess expenditure, unexplainable imports, poor support to India’s domestic sector which is in the wilderliness.India, paradox, thy name?
The number inconsistencies, will anybody reveal the correct figures. Where is the accountability vis-a-vis facts,figures, subsidies, necessity, decision makers?
The Supreme Court had faulted the government for having amassed food grains more than the stock required and due to clumsy storing, the entire stores got devastated by the rats that ate what was supposed to be given for distribution amongst the poor through Public Distribution System and through Antodya Anna Yojana. The Court ordered their free distribution with a time tag. But our iron clad bureaucracy is sitting tight and is in the process of devising a plan to distribute the food grains. When and how will be the reason that there will be delay?
The Planning Commission is of the view that the total BPL families in India are around 6.25 Cr. However, the States do not agree. They estimate the BPL families at 10.7 Cr. Why a head count was not taken is any body’s guess. As against Antdodya Anna Yojana, the beneficiaries entitled to benefits has been reackoned as 2.5 Cr. However, the State government has been able to enlist 1.82 Cr households, and they have been given Ration cards. While 0.68 Cr needs to be accounted, the subsidy for 2.5 Cr households have been calculated, and the amount budgeted and will be released pro rata. What will happen to the budget relating to 0.68 Cr will lie in the wilderliness.
Government, according to Economic Survey (Page 205, Table 8.29) says that in 2008-9, the production of oil seeds was 281.57 lakh tones of which edible oil was produced to the extent of 85.98 lakh tones, while 67.20 lakh tones was imported of which 83% was accounted by Palm Oil. So the available oil was 153.18 lakh tones when the actual requirement was only 132.80 lakh tones. The imported oil in surplus was 20.38 lakh tones which accounted for 15.34% excess. During 2009-10, 255.09 lakh tones was the production of oil seeds and converted into edible oil was 82 lakh tones. The import figures went staggering to 101 lakh tones. The total available oil was 183 lakh tones against the requirement of 138.18 lakh tonne. The difference was 44.82 lakh tones which accounted for 32.44% in excess of demand. Another factor was these oil were imported at ‘nil’ duty for Crude and 7.5% for Refined against the normal 45% and 52.5% and the loss on this account was in the region of Rs 25,000 Cr. Added to this, government thought it wise to release Rs 15 per Kg on imported oil for release through PDS. The recurring expenditure stand at Rs 1,500 Cr!
The question that comes to the fore is why are we importing in excess of what is required. There will inevitably be a closing stock which will become next year’s opening stock. What happened to that? The excess of import during the next year, what will happen to that? To whom do these reserves sold or given?
During 2008-09 an amount of Rs 43,668.08 Cr was released as agricultural subsidies which grew by a staggering 39.69 % over 2007-8 and upto Dec 29, 2009, Rs 46,906.68 Cr was spent which was in excess of 7.42 % over the full year’s spending of 2008-9. This was the time, the Government announced time and again, food inflation going to double figures and crossing 16%. During the same period, our Planning Commission stood ground with the theory that India’s agricultural growth will be 4% and to reduce it in the last quarter to negative 0.20%. Just to upset them, the agricultural growth turned positive and recorded 0.20% growth.
Our Government talks of austerity. Government is committed to fiscal consolidation. Bringing down the fiscal deficit from 5.5%. Our Planning Commission talks of apparatus to enhance growth through paradigm change growth models. While all these are professed, there is waste, excess expenditure, unexplainable imports, poor support to India’s domestic sector which is in the wilderliness.India, paradox, thy name?
The number inconsistencies, will anybody reveal the correct figures. Where is the accountability vis-a-vis facts,figures, subsidies, necessity, decision makers?
Thursday, September 2, 2010
America piggyback on world growth?
During a period of increasingly worrisome headlines about the U.S. economy, there is one bright spot. The rest of the world is doing much better than America.
In the long run, that's good news for the United States. Rapid world growth will eventually rekindle the economic fires in the United States, producing a growth that is more balanced than the bubbles of 1995-2008. Still, getting to that point will be a challenge, since - economically speaking - the home fires don't appear to be burning all that brightly.
The U.S. recovery appears to have slowed to a crawl - or perhaps even ground to a halt. The "advance" estimate of U.S. second-quarter growth was reported at 2.4%, indicating a long road to recovery - during which unemployment is likely to soar.
Almost half of the quarter's gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth projected for the second quarter was inventory buildup. Government spending and a temporary housing blip - caused by the homebuyer tax rebate, which expired April 30 - accounted for the rest.
June durable goods orders, reported July 28, were unexpectedly down 1%, suggesting that even manufacturing is currently slowing. Add to that weak consumer confidence numbers for July and house sales well below expectations for both May and June, and it becomes clear that there's cause for grave concern on the domestic front.
While inflation does not seem to be an immediate problem, unemployment remains appallingly high. That's especially true of long-term unemployment, which - at 4.6% of the working population - is at a post-World War II record. The federal budget deficit is hovering at roughly 10% of GDP and interest rates remain close to zero, thanks to polices that are looking increasingly eccentric when compared to the routes that other countries have chosen to pursue.
It looks as if the U.S. economy will be dealing with the "Great Recession" for a long time to come. But most of the world's other major economies are experiencing fairly rapid recoveries, meaning that they are putting the "Great Recession" firmly in the rearview mirror.
The other countries which were in economic throes are slowly recovering. Canada posted first-quarter growth of no less than 6.1%, and its budget is almost in balance. Even sluggish Britain expanded at 4.5% in the second quarter, and its heroic effort to balance its budget will undoubtedly help growth going forward. German industrial production was up 12.4% in the 12 months through May.
In fact, the overall Euro zone is safely into a growth mode - although its overall budget deficit is still dangerously high. The Economist estimates that shortfall it will reach 7% of GDP this year.
Turning to Latin America, Mexico is something of a basket case. But Brazil is expected to grow at 7.8% this year, with Chile not far behind at 5%. Meanwhile, China is projected to grow at 9.9% in 2010, India at 7.9%, and wealthy South Korea at 5.9%. Even sluggish Japan will manage 3.1% growth.
The bottom line: The wise investor will allocate most of his money internationally.
Modest quantities should go into Europe - particularly Germany and Britain, where valuations are reasonable and growth prospects good. Some should go into Canada, China, Brazil and Chile - each of which has natural-resource-based economies. Canada and Chile also will benefit from having thoroughly reliable governments.
A large proportion should go into Asia: A little into Japan, where prospects appear somewhat brighter than they did a few months ago, and a substantial amount into China. Somewhat less should go into India, where valuations are too high and there are signs of inflation. Finally, a substantial chunk should head for South Korea, which boasts good growth, stability and a capable government.
The Indian consumer is slowly growing in importance. The country has a well-educated, young and ambitious work force, rising wages and is heavily focused on domestic consumption, which means it is less susceptible to the ills of Europe and the United States than China. The government is as messed up as anywhere and civic infrastructure is a nightmare, but both of which will improve over time.
It's important to remember that prospects for the U.S. economy are not universally gloomy. The bad news is that the Obama administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve are together following the policies that Japan has followed for the most of its last 20 years, prolonging recession and producing dangerous bouts of deflation. There are, however, two bits of good news. The first is that U.S. policies may change. However, the movement towards budget balancing is gathering strength in both political parties, and it seems likely that fiscal discipline will be restored once the new Congress takes office in January - following the midterm elections. If the budget is brought towards balance, as is happening in Britain, resources are freed up for the private sector and economic growth becomes easier.
The second, bigger piece of good news - not noticed by those who fear a Japanese "Lost Decade" type of future - is that the U.S. position differs from Japan's in one important respect: Whereas Japan has always had a large balance-of-payments surplus, the United States currently has an enormous balance-of-payments deficit.
The United States has a huge advantage when world economic growth is strong, as is currently the case. With export markets growing faster than domestic consumption, exports will tend naturally to increase faster than imports, producing the most pleasant of all economic states - export-led growth.
Japan couldn't grow its way out of its malaise, because its huge international reserves made the yen too strong, intensifying deflation. Furthermore, foreign countries became disquieted by Japan's surpluses and erected hidden trade barriers against Japanese imports.
In the U.S. case, rapid growth in exports would reduce global imbalances, not increase them. The U.S. balance-of-payments deficit would decline, reducing its need for foreign funding. That would make the world economy more stable and increase its intrinsic growth rate. But it wouldn't push up the dollar, because the balance of payments would still be in a deficit.
Stern action has to be taken to rein in the budget deficit, U.S. economic growth would accelerate and unemployment would decline. If the budget deficit remained huge, there wouldn't be so much money coming in from abroad, meaning domestic savers would be forced to buy U.S. Treasuries. That would force up interest rates and restrict the flow of funds to private-sector borrowers.
U.S. investors should be optimistic for 2011 and beyond. Rapid global growth should rectify the U.S. balance-of-payments problem, so that even modest fiscal discipline will produce a quickening of U.S. growth rates, and a full economic recovery.
In the long run, that's good news for the United States. Rapid world growth will eventually rekindle the economic fires in the United States, producing a growth that is more balanced than the bubbles of 1995-2008. Still, getting to that point will be a challenge, since - economically speaking - the home fires don't appear to be burning all that brightly.
The U.S. recovery appears to have slowed to a crawl - or perhaps even ground to a halt. The "advance" estimate of U.S. second-quarter growth was reported at 2.4%, indicating a long road to recovery - during which unemployment is likely to soar.
Almost half of the quarter's gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth projected for the second quarter was inventory buildup. Government spending and a temporary housing blip - caused by the homebuyer tax rebate, which expired April 30 - accounted for the rest.
June durable goods orders, reported July 28, were unexpectedly down 1%, suggesting that even manufacturing is currently slowing. Add to that weak consumer confidence numbers for July and house sales well below expectations for both May and June, and it becomes clear that there's cause for grave concern on the domestic front.
While inflation does not seem to be an immediate problem, unemployment remains appallingly high. That's especially true of long-term unemployment, which - at 4.6% of the working population - is at a post-World War II record. The federal budget deficit is hovering at roughly 10% of GDP and interest rates remain close to zero, thanks to polices that are looking increasingly eccentric when compared to the routes that other countries have chosen to pursue.
It looks as if the U.S. economy will be dealing with the "Great Recession" for a long time to come. But most of the world's other major economies are experiencing fairly rapid recoveries, meaning that they are putting the "Great Recession" firmly in the rearview mirror.
The other countries which were in economic throes are slowly recovering. Canada posted first-quarter growth of no less than 6.1%, and its budget is almost in balance. Even sluggish Britain expanded at 4.5% in the second quarter, and its heroic effort to balance its budget will undoubtedly help growth going forward. German industrial production was up 12.4% in the 12 months through May.
In fact, the overall Euro zone is safely into a growth mode - although its overall budget deficit is still dangerously high. The Economist estimates that shortfall it will reach 7% of GDP this year.
Turning to Latin America, Mexico is something of a basket case. But Brazil is expected to grow at 7.8% this year, with Chile not far behind at 5%. Meanwhile, China is projected to grow at 9.9% in 2010, India at 7.9%, and wealthy South Korea at 5.9%. Even sluggish Japan will manage 3.1% growth.
The bottom line: The wise investor will allocate most of his money internationally.
Modest quantities should go into Europe - particularly Germany and Britain, where valuations are reasonable and growth prospects good. Some should go into Canada, China, Brazil and Chile - each of which has natural-resource-based economies. Canada and Chile also will benefit from having thoroughly reliable governments.
A large proportion should go into Asia: A little into Japan, where prospects appear somewhat brighter than they did a few months ago, and a substantial amount into China. Somewhat less should go into India, where valuations are too high and there are signs of inflation. Finally, a substantial chunk should head for South Korea, which boasts good growth, stability and a capable government.
The Indian consumer is slowly growing in importance. The country has a well-educated, young and ambitious work force, rising wages and is heavily focused on domestic consumption, which means it is less susceptible to the ills of Europe and the United States than China. The government is as messed up as anywhere and civic infrastructure is a nightmare, but both of which will improve over time.
It's important to remember that prospects for the U.S. economy are not universally gloomy. The bad news is that the Obama administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve are together following the policies that Japan has followed for the most of its last 20 years, prolonging recession and producing dangerous bouts of deflation. There are, however, two bits of good news. The first is that U.S. policies may change. However, the movement towards budget balancing is gathering strength in both political parties, and it seems likely that fiscal discipline will be restored once the new Congress takes office in January - following the midterm elections. If the budget is brought towards balance, as is happening in Britain, resources are freed up for the private sector and economic growth becomes easier.
The second, bigger piece of good news - not noticed by those who fear a Japanese "Lost Decade" type of future - is that the U.S. position differs from Japan's in one important respect: Whereas Japan has always had a large balance-of-payments surplus, the United States currently has an enormous balance-of-payments deficit.
The United States has a huge advantage when world economic growth is strong, as is currently the case. With export markets growing faster than domestic consumption, exports will tend naturally to increase faster than imports, producing the most pleasant of all economic states - export-led growth.
Japan couldn't grow its way out of its malaise, because its huge international reserves made the yen too strong, intensifying deflation. Furthermore, foreign countries became disquieted by Japan's surpluses and erected hidden trade barriers against Japanese imports.
In the U.S. case, rapid growth in exports would reduce global imbalances, not increase them. The U.S. balance-of-payments deficit would decline, reducing its need for foreign funding. That would make the world economy more stable and increase its intrinsic growth rate. But it wouldn't push up the dollar, because the balance of payments would still be in a deficit.
Stern action has to be taken to rein in the budget deficit, U.S. economic growth would accelerate and unemployment would decline. If the budget deficit remained huge, there wouldn't be so much money coming in from abroad, meaning domestic savers would be forced to buy U.S. Treasuries. That would force up interest rates and restrict the flow of funds to private-sector borrowers.
U.S. investors should be optimistic for 2011 and beyond. Rapid global growth should rectify the U.S. balance-of-payments problem, so that even modest fiscal discipline will produce a quickening of U.S. growth rates, and a full economic recovery.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Urgent judicial reforms needed
Indian judiciary, one of the pillars of the Indian Constitution, was venerated, respected and believed to be conscience keeper of the Country’s constitution. Certain land mark judgments, which recognized the right of the individual over absolute Power, independence of the IV estate and Executives invasion into the freedom of the Press had been considered sacred by the Courts, even Courts looked into certain legislative actions from the strict eyes of Law and juristic covenants, precedents and templates, have bee lauded and respected. It acted as an accountable body protecting the fundamental rights, the Courts struck acts and laws transgressing the limits of the Constitution, and kept up its supremacy.
However, when the Governments at the Centre and States started tinkering with Laws, and any arbitration between Centre and states, states and States, States Vs individuals were referred to the Courts for adjudication, the Executive wantonly transferred its responsibility to Courts. When even administrative matters were not solved on the basis of Driot Administratef, Central Government and State Government Rules, but referred to Courts,. Examples of this are Ayodhya dispute, Cauveri Water dispute, etc were referred to Courts for its arbitration. There are many issues which had been referred by the President of India to the Supreme Court for its clarification, Courts naturally became highly pro active, and took upon itself, cases which normally should not have been admitted. The Public Interest litigation was easy route for anybody to approach the highest Court of the land, whether the applicant had prima facie interest and affected by a particular order or action of the government, he surpassed the usual channels of law available to him, and knocked at the Supreme Court whether he was bona fide affected or not. This PIL later became a nuisance, and Supreme Court had warned the petitioners not to file vexatious PIL without sufficient reasons.
The present judiciary is losing common man’s respect for obviously many reasons. Cases have been piled up in the lower Courts, higher Courts and Supreme Courts for ages, there are corruption charges against Judges of the higher Court, there are impeachment proceedings against some Judges, some judges involved in the PF case have brought shame to the judiciary. Criticism of one judge by another pusine judge through twitter or speeches have become common, there are parallel trails by the visual media 24x7 which prejudices the Case and one of the sad repercussions of these are loss of faith by the litigants on Courts which is supposed to dispense Fair Law. There have been past judgments which have been reversed 360 degrees by higher Courts. The recent incidents involving some of the sitting judicial officers for their Post Graduate legal examination at Andhra Pradesh were caught red handed copying by a CCTV camera is a shame on the entire judicial system. If a judicial officer who should administer fair justice indulge in incorrect procedures, who will give justice to the litigants? Can litigants have faith in such judicial officers or the judicial system?
There are also reports that appointments to the High Courts and Supreme Courts and transfer of High Court judges from one state to another are not fair. Good lawyers do not want to become Judges. Another factor in delay in delivering Justice is shortage of Judges. Even cases filed in the Fast Track Courts are unusually delayed.
There is a need for overhauling reforms in Judiciary. The left over of the colonial past including Rules, regulations, acts, laws have been a stumbling block to deliver Law in these days when speed is a necessity. Globalization has changed global laws. World has changed. There are States or nations which indulge in Wars. There are non state actors who indulge in terrorism acts or take Law into their hands. Whether these acts are out of frustration, economic backwardness or political thinking is another matter. Judges are human, they can commit mistakes. But when some of the judicial officers think that they are conferred with infinite powers, they should be told that there are checks and balances in the judicial system. There are many acts of indiscipline within the Court rooms. The Judges are accountable to the system and Rule of Law. They are also accountable to the Constitution of India. They must be mild in their observations for the litigant who has obeyed the Law and stringent in their language against law breaker. Government also should respect protocols and act impassionately. During the vote on account during the introduction of the Financial bill, CBI told the Supreme Court that enough evidence of financial irregularity against Mayawati is not there; but when to get the Nuclear Bill passed, where there was necessity to get the Left and BJP to support the Government, the CBI took a 360 degree turn and now says that evidences are there against Mayawati. This is the highest political misuse.
Judicial Reforms is the need of the hour. Like the Fourth estate, Indian judiciary needs to exert self discipline. The hallowed institution should command respect, reverence and worship! It must regain its lost legacy.
However, when the Governments at the Centre and States started tinkering with Laws, and any arbitration between Centre and states, states and States, States Vs individuals were referred to the Courts for adjudication, the Executive wantonly transferred its responsibility to Courts. When even administrative matters were not solved on the basis of Driot Administratef, Central Government and State Government Rules, but referred to Courts,. Examples of this are Ayodhya dispute, Cauveri Water dispute, etc were referred to Courts for its arbitration. There are many issues which had been referred by the President of India to the Supreme Court for its clarification, Courts naturally became highly pro active, and took upon itself, cases which normally should not have been admitted. The Public Interest litigation was easy route for anybody to approach the highest Court of the land, whether the applicant had prima facie interest and affected by a particular order or action of the government, he surpassed the usual channels of law available to him, and knocked at the Supreme Court whether he was bona fide affected or not. This PIL later became a nuisance, and Supreme Court had warned the petitioners not to file vexatious PIL without sufficient reasons.
The present judiciary is losing common man’s respect for obviously many reasons. Cases have been piled up in the lower Courts, higher Courts and Supreme Courts for ages, there are corruption charges against Judges of the higher Court, there are impeachment proceedings against some Judges, some judges involved in the PF case have brought shame to the judiciary. Criticism of one judge by another pusine judge through twitter or speeches have become common, there are parallel trails by the visual media 24x7 which prejudices the Case and one of the sad repercussions of these are loss of faith by the litigants on Courts which is supposed to dispense Fair Law. There have been past judgments which have been reversed 360 degrees by higher Courts. The recent incidents involving some of the sitting judicial officers for their Post Graduate legal examination at Andhra Pradesh were caught red handed copying by a CCTV camera is a shame on the entire judicial system. If a judicial officer who should administer fair justice indulge in incorrect procedures, who will give justice to the litigants? Can litigants have faith in such judicial officers or the judicial system?
There are also reports that appointments to the High Courts and Supreme Courts and transfer of High Court judges from one state to another are not fair. Good lawyers do not want to become Judges. Another factor in delay in delivering Justice is shortage of Judges. Even cases filed in the Fast Track Courts are unusually delayed.
There is a need for overhauling reforms in Judiciary. The left over of the colonial past including Rules, regulations, acts, laws have been a stumbling block to deliver Law in these days when speed is a necessity. Globalization has changed global laws. World has changed. There are States or nations which indulge in Wars. There are non state actors who indulge in terrorism acts or take Law into their hands. Whether these acts are out of frustration, economic backwardness or political thinking is another matter. Judges are human, they can commit mistakes. But when some of the judicial officers think that they are conferred with infinite powers, they should be told that there are checks and balances in the judicial system. There are many acts of indiscipline within the Court rooms. The Judges are accountable to the system and Rule of Law. They are also accountable to the Constitution of India. They must be mild in their observations for the litigant who has obeyed the Law and stringent in their language against law breaker. Government also should respect protocols and act impassionately. During the vote on account during the introduction of the Financial bill, CBI told the Supreme Court that enough evidence of financial irregularity against Mayawati is not there; but when to get the Nuclear Bill passed, where there was necessity to get the Left and BJP to support the Government, the CBI took a 360 degree turn and now says that evidences are there against Mayawati. This is the highest political misuse.
Judicial Reforms is the need of the hour. Like the Fourth estate, Indian judiciary needs to exert self discipline. The hallowed institution should command respect, reverence and worship! It must regain its lost legacy.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
We need to change our Agricultural prespectives?
Our lives are so fragile and vulnerable dependent on the monsoon winds. A deflection of even four degrees in the travel of these winds in any year can make for the draught in several States. To this day, with all the economic and technological advancements, the irony is that farmers continue to look up to the sky and pray for the winds and the rains on time; urban cities in their search for solutions for water and power shortages, are so completely dependent on the monsoon for life and living. If the farmer cannot grow food without the winds and the rains, the urban dweller does not get power at home and food at the Mall, without the rich water catchments that either generate hydel power or increase the inflow of greens and cereals into the market.
The rainfall pattern has held for many years on the same. So on what does this pattern depend upon? The Indian sub continent is the only region in the entire world which is dependent on winds that flow 24/7 from across the seas to the land and back again to the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and the vast Indian Ocean that lies beneath. These northwest and southwest monsoon are as old as Time, and travel at a speed of 12/18 Kms an hour. These winds might have taken the present directions after the formation of Himalayas which must be just over 15-20 million years ago; this is nothing compared to the fact that the creation of earth goes back to over 4,000 million years.
Malabar Coast became a leading trading hub and a vibrant passage of cross cultural mergers and dialogues because the sea lanes beyond the borders led the ancients to this place because of the wind movement. Monsoon lands in Kerala in India at the first instance. The guts of wind that herald rain bends and break the Coconut trees, which are very weak or too stiff and upright, but the more flexible ones bend and extend their palm leaves to break the downpour and so many tiny waterfalls hang out from their branches.
Like the self sufficiency in food while mass hunger continues in many parts, it is another great contradiction of India that there is too much water in some areas while draught prevail in others. Distribution is the key word in both cases. Meanwhile, traditional and local water management practices, which sustain the most deprived in remote areas are ignored and damaged by modern development.
The full moon day in the thick of monsoon, is a day villagers come in herds to worship the water itself; the life sustaining element created by the harmonies of nature.
Monsoon if bountiful will push our agricultural output; if deficit, it will hit the food economy. Rainfall in 2009 was lowest since 1972, yet that fiscal accounted for a diminishing 0.2% in output. If monsoon comes, India’s agriculture will regain resilience. Output of Khariff food grains fell by 15% and oil seeds by 5%. Government released the figures that the agricultural growth accounted for 0.2% in agricultural GDP. Are the estimates correct? The Economists, who are policy advisors, have to anticipate problems and suggest solutions before problems turn to crisis. And not justify the crisis as a fall-out of international reasons. Devaluation of the Dollar has been a frenzied monster, and to offset that, the Rupee: Dollar parity should have been narrowed down, which if done, would have angered the business crowd.
Our Agricultural policy is ridiculous. Planning Commission and MoA, and the economic advisors of the PM/Finance Ministry have been fooling people. Inflation is directly related to hoarding of food grains. The solution lies in bringing down stocks to appropriate levels, and inventory should relate to food grains required for PDS. Government has no business to buy food grains more than what is required for PDS and that too at the prevalent market rates. Government policy appears to be: give farmers highest prices and give the grains at throw away prices. Traders do not keep any inventories of food grains, and what they did was paid the farmers and allowed the goods to be kept with them, and took them and sold them at savaging prices during mid inflation in food. The price raise has been caused by a plethora of problems, the government needs to accept them and the opposition need to understand them and then evolve effective policies to solve it. Instead, destructive arguments for all the wrong reasons see Parliament adjourned again and again.
Government’s only solution appears to be imports of food grains and essential oils. And to curb inflation, its only solution is minimizing Customs duties. It has also banned import of edible oils by canalizing imports and has prohibited all sorts of exports of essential edible oils. With free import of oils from abroad at nil customs duties, the market is invaded nakedly by the imported oils that it sounds death knell for indigenous edible oils. But our agricultural ministry behaves like King Canute, who asked the waves to roll back. Is the Government not acting like King Caunte by asking the monsoons to come? The economists have no other option or armory. Our agricultural minister thinks that agriculture prices are like a 20:20 match. The more the price goes up, the more will be supply. But unfortunately, the Opposite happens!
In the context of Growth Vs Inflation, it is intellectually and methodologically flawed. Economic strategy must reflect high yield, high growth with modest inflation and high employment. When prices were falling globally, Govt adopted an aggressive food procurement programme. When there were enough stocks, the right approach should have been to release that and allow market forces to act. This would have allowed demand and supply equation, and the prices would have been in sync with global prices. Government also did not undertake any global market operations. Food issue was dealt with too many ministries- Finance, Cabinet Committee on prices, NAC, PDS was not good. There is also a need to know behaviour trends like cropping pattern, emerging trends in growth in different crops, weather trends. Food prices are high, Foreign exchange reserves is not a problem, monsoon is good, food supplies are ample available. How to do, what needs to be done and that too, very fast.
We need to restructure the PDS model, as PDS has not been able to perform for the last 60 years.
In a general equilibrium model, you need to operate in both. Demand side is a larger issue, whereas spillover of food inflation into a more of generalized inflation is a core issue. If you have a strategy that is led by consumption instead of investment, then the demand side management is an issue. On the supply side, we need to take care of wastage. More than 45% of the food and vegetables are wasted.
The rainfall pattern has held for many years on the same. So on what does this pattern depend upon? The Indian sub continent is the only region in the entire world which is dependent on winds that flow 24/7 from across the seas to the land and back again to the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and the vast Indian Ocean that lies beneath. These northwest and southwest monsoon are as old as Time, and travel at a speed of 12/18 Kms an hour. These winds might have taken the present directions after the formation of Himalayas which must be just over 15-20 million years ago; this is nothing compared to the fact that the creation of earth goes back to over 4,000 million years.
Malabar Coast became a leading trading hub and a vibrant passage of cross cultural mergers and dialogues because the sea lanes beyond the borders led the ancients to this place because of the wind movement. Monsoon lands in Kerala in India at the first instance. The guts of wind that herald rain bends and break the Coconut trees, which are very weak or too stiff and upright, but the more flexible ones bend and extend their palm leaves to break the downpour and so many tiny waterfalls hang out from their branches.
Like the self sufficiency in food while mass hunger continues in many parts, it is another great contradiction of India that there is too much water in some areas while draught prevail in others. Distribution is the key word in both cases. Meanwhile, traditional and local water management practices, which sustain the most deprived in remote areas are ignored and damaged by modern development.
The full moon day in the thick of monsoon, is a day villagers come in herds to worship the water itself; the life sustaining element created by the harmonies of nature.
Monsoon if bountiful will push our agricultural output; if deficit, it will hit the food economy. Rainfall in 2009 was lowest since 1972, yet that fiscal accounted for a diminishing 0.2% in output. If monsoon comes, India’s agriculture will regain resilience. Output of Khariff food grains fell by 15% and oil seeds by 5%. Government released the figures that the agricultural growth accounted for 0.2% in agricultural GDP. Are the estimates correct? The Economists, who are policy advisors, have to anticipate problems and suggest solutions before problems turn to crisis. And not justify the crisis as a fall-out of international reasons. Devaluation of the Dollar has been a frenzied monster, and to offset that, the Rupee: Dollar parity should have been narrowed down, which if done, would have angered the business crowd.
Our Agricultural policy is ridiculous. Planning Commission and MoA, and the economic advisors of the PM/Finance Ministry have been fooling people. Inflation is directly related to hoarding of food grains. The solution lies in bringing down stocks to appropriate levels, and inventory should relate to food grains required for PDS. Government has no business to buy food grains more than what is required for PDS and that too at the prevalent market rates. Government policy appears to be: give farmers highest prices and give the grains at throw away prices. Traders do not keep any inventories of food grains, and what they did was paid the farmers and allowed the goods to be kept with them, and took them and sold them at savaging prices during mid inflation in food. The price raise has been caused by a plethora of problems, the government needs to accept them and the opposition need to understand them and then evolve effective policies to solve it. Instead, destructive arguments for all the wrong reasons see Parliament adjourned again and again.
Government’s only solution appears to be imports of food grains and essential oils. And to curb inflation, its only solution is minimizing Customs duties. It has also banned import of edible oils by canalizing imports and has prohibited all sorts of exports of essential edible oils. With free import of oils from abroad at nil customs duties, the market is invaded nakedly by the imported oils that it sounds death knell for indigenous edible oils. But our agricultural ministry behaves like King Canute, who asked the waves to roll back. Is the Government not acting like King Caunte by asking the monsoons to come? The economists have no other option or armory. Our agricultural minister thinks that agriculture prices are like a 20:20 match. The more the price goes up, the more will be supply. But unfortunately, the Opposite happens!
In the context of Growth Vs Inflation, it is intellectually and methodologically flawed. Economic strategy must reflect high yield, high growth with modest inflation and high employment. When prices were falling globally, Govt adopted an aggressive food procurement programme. When there were enough stocks, the right approach should have been to release that and allow market forces to act. This would have allowed demand and supply equation, and the prices would have been in sync with global prices. Government also did not undertake any global market operations. Food issue was dealt with too many ministries- Finance, Cabinet Committee on prices, NAC, PDS was not good. There is also a need to know behaviour trends like cropping pattern, emerging trends in growth in different crops, weather trends. Food prices are high, Foreign exchange reserves is not a problem, monsoon is good, food supplies are ample available. How to do, what needs to be done and that too, very fast.
We need to restructure the PDS model, as PDS has not been able to perform for the last 60 years.
In a general equilibrium model, you need to operate in both. Demand side is a larger issue, whereas spillover of food inflation into a more of generalized inflation is a core issue. If you have a strategy that is led by consumption instead of investment, then the demand side management is an issue. On the supply side, we need to take care of wastage. More than 45% of the food and vegetables are wasted.
Amend the century old Land Acquisition Act!
In deference to the near unanimity amongst the political parties against forcible land acquisitions, the Centre is proposing to bring out a bill which was being considered by the Group of Ministers headed by Agriculture Minister Mr Sharad Pawar. The interest of farmers would be protected through a comprehensive legislation. There were many conversion of agricultural lands for being converted to SEZ. Governments were buying land from farmers at throw away prices and passing them on to the authorities for development, industrialization etc depending upon a Law enacted in 1894.
The Supreme Court in a case filed by an individual whose lands were acquired for public purpose by the State Government by invoking the Special Land Acqusition Act held that when fixing the compensation, the present market value plus the future potential value, the purpose for which the land was acquired and proposed to be used must be taken into account when arriving at the just compensation.
The Court held that today’s market value of the property but the value with reference to the better use to which it is reasonably capable of being put in the immediate or near future. The potentiality of the acquired land, in so far as it relates to the use to which it is reasonably capable of being put, must be given due consideration.
The location of the land that was being acquired, the futuristic developments that are in the pipe line, and the increase in the marketability of the property has to be assessed to arrive at a fair compensation value by prudent examination of the existing, potential and notional increase in value.
The State Government, Central Government, Public bodies acquire land for different purposes citing public purpose as the indent for their acquiring the land. If it is an agricultural land, the body vested with the power, provides NoC to convert the existing agricultural land into general land which can be used even for commercial purposes. The lands have been taken over to build dams, hydro electric power stations, setting up factories, building colleges, setting establishments of Central government, or state government including defence, public sector undertakings, setting up parks, recreation centres, for development of houses under various Schemes, etc. In India, we do not have a Rehabilitation and Resettlement Plan/Act by which displaced persons are given dwelling places on the same scale or model in which they lived prior to the acquisition. A settlement is disturbed, the persons are given dwelling places in four or five different areas, splitting them according to land availability, where there will be no infrastructure and facilities similar to the one enjoyed by the displaced.
In Karwar, when the naval establishment (for Defence purposes) proposed to acquire about 20,000 hectres of land along the sea coast, I did a costing taking into the calculation, the notional value of returns from coconut trees, jack fruits, and areca trees, the notional loss due to the tract of sea front lost for fishermen to fish, and consequent to the setting up of the naval base, an area will be declared as No entry Zone, which will restrict the movement of the traditional fishermen. In North Canara, the land was scarce, hence alternate land was difficult to be obtained. All this, should be factored in the Compensation. The Govt of India was kind enough to accept some of the arguments, and a proposal namely, Greater Karwar Development Authority was suggested. But in the absence of a uniform Rehabilitation policy, along with a Resettlement Act, it would not be possible for the evictees to get instant justice, but the case will drag on. The Government’s late thinking of bringing a law to curb poaching agricultural land and/or acquiring the agricultural land and permitting legal conversion, will go a long way to restrict frequent misue of the public purpose take-over of land. The Supreme Court’s direction has not come a day soon, as it will open up discussion on arriving at a just formula which could be arrived at for uniform implementation on a case to case basis depending upon parameters.
Especially when Right to property has been removed from the fundamental right even though the people who enacted the Constitution where part of the Constituent Assembly on the basis of land holding. The 116 year old Act needs overhaul. Government should Act now. Right now.
The Supreme Court in a case filed by an individual whose lands were acquired for public purpose by the State Government by invoking the Special Land Acqusition Act held that when fixing the compensation, the present market value plus the future potential value, the purpose for which the land was acquired and proposed to be used must be taken into account when arriving at the just compensation.
The Court held that today’s market value of the property but the value with reference to the better use to which it is reasonably capable of being put in the immediate or near future. The potentiality of the acquired land, in so far as it relates to the use to which it is reasonably capable of being put, must be given due consideration.
The location of the land that was being acquired, the futuristic developments that are in the pipe line, and the increase in the marketability of the property has to be assessed to arrive at a fair compensation value by prudent examination of the existing, potential and notional increase in value.
The State Government, Central Government, Public bodies acquire land for different purposes citing public purpose as the indent for their acquiring the land. If it is an agricultural land, the body vested with the power, provides NoC to convert the existing agricultural land into general land which can be used even for commercial purposes. The lands have been taken over to build dams, hydro electric power stations, setting up factories, building colleges, setting establishments of Central government, or state government including defence, public sector undertakings, setting up parks, recreation centres, for development of houses under various Schemes, etc. In India, we do not have a Rehabilitation and Resettlement Plan/Act by which displaced persons are given dwelling places on the same scale or model in which they lived prior to the acquisition. A settlement is disturbed, the persons are given dwelling places in four or five different areas, splitting them according to land availability, where there will be no infrastructure and facilities similar to the one enjoyed by the displaced.
In Karwar, when the naval establishment (for Defence purposes) proposed to acquire about 20,000 hectres of land along the sea coast, I did a costing taking into the calculation, the notional value of returns from coconut trees, jack fruits, and areca trees, the notional loss due to the tract of sea front lost for fishermen to fish, and consequent to the setting up of the naval base, an area will be declared as No entry Zone, which will restrict the movement of the traditional fishermen. In North Canara, the land was scarce, hence alternate land was difficult to be obtained. All this, should be factored in the Compensation. The Govt of India was kind enough to accept some of the arguments, and a proposal namely, Greater Karwar Development Authority was suggested. But in the absence of a uniform Rehabilitation policy, along with a Resettlement Act, it would not be possible for the evictees to get instant justice, but the case will drag on. The Government’s late thinking of bringing a law to curb poaching agricultural land and/or acquiring the agricultural land and permitting legal conversion, will go a long way to restrict frequent misue of the public purpose take-over of land. The Supreme Court’s direction has not come a day soon, as it will open up discussion on arriving at a just formula which could be arrived at for uniform implementation on a case to case basis depending upon parameters.
Especially when Right to property has been removed from the fundamental right even though the people who enacted the Constitution where part of the Constituent Assembly on the basis of land holding. The 116 year old Act needs overhaul. Government should Act now. Right now.
Foreign Trade Policy- Survival of the fittest?
Government has been cautious not to get overjoyed over 32% export growth in the first quarter of 2010-11 and maintained the equilibrium in retaining most of the stimulus and concessions offered to the export based industry through FTP to enable it to stand on its feet. DEPB has been extended up to 30-6-2012, continuation of interest subvention for handicraft, handloom, MSME sectors and inclusion of leather, textiles, Jute sectors as well in the interest subvention Pre-shipment, Post shipment Scheme, retention of Status Holder incentive, thrust on South-South trade through Special Market Focus Product Scheme, introducing annual EPCG authorization scheme to reduce filing of multiple EPCG authorization, etc , it is hoped, would provide impetus to export growth.
Duty Drawback will be seperately announced within a fortnight by Department of Revenue. There is a tremedous amount of hope and hype, that the DDB rates may get bigger to enable the export industry to sail through the rough weather of diminishing orders.
Coconut industry which has been included in Vishesh KrishiGram Udyog Yojana, Spl Focus product schemes, Focus Market Scheme, Market Focus Product Scheme, 3% EPCG Scheme, Duty drawback and Duty Entitlement Pass Book Scheme, was able to effect an export of Rs 180 Cr growth during the first quarter of 2010-11 against Rs 80 Cr in the first quarter of last year, which is a significant improvement. The Commerce Ministry added minor Coconut products for inclusion like Oil Cake, Coconut shell unworked under VKGUY and Coconut hookah under Special Focus product Scheme during a slight revision exercise it undertook on 12-1-2010.
In the amended edition for 2011-12, Packaged Coconut Water, Coconut shell worked, oil cakes have been brought under VKGUY eligible for a duty scrip benefit of 5%. Virgin Coconut Oil is expected to be included when the Government take a decision regarding making Free, the prohibitive clause in export of food products and oil products, as domestic availability and inflation has been blocking its release for exports.
It has been largely due to our pressure that Palm Oil which has been enjoying nil Customs duty is likely to be brought fewer than 20% Customs duty slab for Crude and 27.5% for Refined Palm Oil. The impact of Customs duty will steady the Coconut oil market domestically. The ruling price of palm oil is Rs 4,400/- per quintal while Palm kernal oil is rs 5,600/- per quintal. Coconut Oil is avilable at Rs 5,850/- per quintal while one quintal of Copra is quoted at Rs 3,950/-. With the customs duty tagged on, Coconut Oil will seize price advantage, and would be able to stabilize its growth over a period of nine to one year, if the conditions stay as it is.
Activated Carbon (under 3802) which constitute 50% of Coconut exports, has not been included in any of the Schemes for benefit.However, chemicals and allied sectors, rubber has been considered weaklings and provided arm comfort through inclusion in the 'bonus’ to the export schemes. While handicrafts(Barmer), textiles(Bhiwandi),leather(Agra) have been included in App-7 of the HBP,Vol I, Pollachi which has a growing export town for 'Coir and coconut' products fetching around Rs 450 cr exports was not considered for TEE tag. By allowing Natural rubber to be imported into India at 7.5% import Customs duty against 20%, feeble support is given to Rubber products by bringing them under VKGUY, is not going to augument Rubber-4 price favourably. Kerala's other sectors, unfortunately only status quo has been provided . CSEZ has turned out a commendable export performance of over Rs 15,000 Cr, yet nothing has been granted special to CSEZ. Inspite of Government promoting Latin America as an emerging economy, trade between India and Latin America continues to be sober. Is it 'trade lag'?
Marine products have been given some concessions and extra considerations. But largely, sagging Kerala based export sectors have been left high and dry to nag without solace and/or comfort.
Commerce Ministry is hopeful of attaining a target of US $ 200 billion this year. Hopefully, yes.
Duty Drawback will be seperately announced within a fortnight by Department of Revenue. There is a tremedous amount of hope and hype, that the DDB rates may get bigger to enable the export industry to sail through the rough weather of diminishing orders.
Coconut industry which has been included in Vishesh KrishiGram Udyog Yojana, Spl Focus product schemes, Focus Market Scheme, Market Focus Product Scheme, 3% EPCG Scheme, Duty drawback and Duty Entitlement Pass Book Scheme, was able to effect an export of Rs 180 Cr growth during the first quarter of 2010-11 against Rs 80 Cr in the first quarter of last year, which is a significant improvement. The Commerce Ministry added minor Coconut products for inclusion like Oil Cake, Coconut shell unworked under VKGUY and Coconut hookah under Special Focus product Scheme during a slight revision exercise it undertook on 12-1-2010.
In the amended edition for 2011-12, Packaged Coconut Water, Coconut shell worked, oil cakes have been brought under VKGUY eligible for a duty scrip benefit of 5%. Virgin Coconut Oil is expected to be included when the Government take a decision regarding making Free, the prohibitive clause in export of food products and oil products, as domestic availability and inflation has been blocking its release for exports.
It has been largely due to our pressure that Palm Oil which has been enjoying nil Customs duty is likely to be brought fewer than 20% Customs duty slab for Crude and 27.5% for Refined Palm Oil. The impact of Customs duty will steady the Coconut oil market domestically. The ruling price of palm oil is Rs 4,400/- per quintal while Palm kernal oil is rs 5,600/- per quintal. Coconut Oil is avilable at Rs 5,850/- per quintal while one quintal of Copra is quoted at Rs 3,950/-. With the customs duty tagged on, Coconut Oil will seize price advantage, and would be able to stabilize its growth over a period of nine to one year, if the conditions stay as it is.
Activated Carbon (under 3802) which constitute 50% of Coconut exports, has not been included in any of the Schemes for benefit.However, chemicals and allied sectors, rubber has been considered weaklings and provided arm comfort through inclusion in the 'bonus’ to the export schemes. While handicrafts(Barmer), textiles(Bhiwandi),leather(Agra) have been included in App-7 of the HBP,Vol I, Pollachi which has a growing export town for 'Coir and coconut' products fetching around Rs 450 cr exports was not considered for TEE tag. By allowing Natural rubber to be imported into India at 7.5% import Customs duty against 20%, feeble support is given to Rubber products by bringing them under VKGUY, is not going to augument Rubber-4 price favourably. Kerala's other sectors, unfortunately only status quo has been provided . CSEZ has turned out a commendable export performance of over Rs 15,000 Cr, yet nothing has been granted special to CSEZ. Inspite of Government promoting Latin America as an emerging economy, trade between India and Latin America continues to be sober. Is it 'trade lag'?
Marine products have been given some concessions and extra considerations. But largely, sagging Kerala based export sectors have been left high and dry to nag without solace and/or comfort.
Commerce Ministry is hopeful of attaining a target of US $ 200 billion this year. Hopefully, yes.
Rise in Executive Salaries?
The salaries of CEOs have skyrocketed over the past 20 years, rising at a faster pace than average wages, managerial pay, or corporate earnings. This is mainly due to compensation benchmarking. A standard practice in many industries, benchmarking occurs when compensation committees use peer executives at rival firms to establish a “fair” market wage. The problem is that each year, some CEOs leapfrog others by raking in huge bonuses or raises that are unrelated to their company’s performance, often thanks to poor corporate governance or oversight. These inflated salaries are then used by other companies to set their compensation levels; over time, the snowball effect makes CEOs’ salaries swell dramatically.
The compensation survey conducted by Standard & Poor’s (1992 to 2006) revealed that there were haphazard sharp increases in CEO salaries. When the pay of Chief Executives were compared with the compensation received by the salaried Directors on different Boards. An attempt at examination as to how CEO pay was determined by analyzing consultant and compensation committee records. Leapfrogging accounted for about half of the overall increase in CEO salaries in that time period, according to the survey. The mean CEO salary plus bonus, adjusted for inflation, grew by 58 percent from 1993 to 2005, and the mean total compensation, which included stock and stock options, increased by 116 percent. Meanwhile, mean annual compensation in India overall rose by only 20 percent.
As per SIBI Guidelines, there is a mandate that the firms shall disclose the salaries drawn by the top-CEOs, how much bonus, percentage of profit was paid to them, what were their perks. Also salaries, commissions drawn by paid Directors also need to be disclosed. Some firms give Stock options to the Staff, wherein a good chunk in blue chip companies land in favour of the top executives like CEO, Mg Director, Dy Mg Director, Working Director etc. One CEO of a firm based in Chennai draws Rs 42 Cr as compensation per annum. His wife, who is the Dy MD, is also drawing an equivalent sum. There are many CEOs in India who draw an average salary and compensation of Rs 1 Cr and above.
The salaries of CEOs fixed during the last twenty years or so, based on standard surveys conducted by international reputed Analysts are that competition benchmarking is the bottomline for fixing the salaries of their own CEOs. Otherwise, there will be migration or desertion. But the comparison of salaries of competitions is often inflated, which artificially drive up competition.
The same benchmarking with the 6th pay commission recommendations to the bureaucrats has necessitated an enlargement in the salary and allowances of members of Parliament. However, Cabinet on the basis of the recommendation by parliamentary affairs ministry proposed to increase the salary from Rs 16,000 to Rs 50,000 against Rs 80,000 as recommended by the Parliamentary panel. Today, a Secretary to Government gets a pay of Rs 80,000 per month after the revision of their salaries after introduction of 6th Pay Commission. In addition an MP gets a daily allowance of Rs 2,000 per day, constituency allowance of Rs 45,000 and office expense of Rs 45,000 per month. The car allowance has been increased to Rs 4 lakh. Spouses are also eligible for free travel by flight. The increase is from retrospective effect (arrears from May 2009). In addition each MP is provided with Rs 2 Cr which can be spent by him for special works in his constituency. These are times when inflation is in the two digits, there is widespread disquiet because of non availability of jobs, or basic income, huge defence outlay because of fearsome neighbours, terrorist masterminds who want to see the country destroyed, agriculture and industry’s growth is slow paced. Our egalitarian society which promises every citizen the fundamental right to freedom of work, when there are none opportunities should glaringly reflect in the eyes of our people who have been capitulated to Parliament to work towards the welfare of the nation.
The free economy regime will see demand for more and more wealth, and creation of more wealth will lead to more spending resulted in runaway inflation.
The compensation survey conducted by Standard & Poor’s (1992 to 2006) revealed that there were haphazard sharp increases in CEO salaries. When the pay of Chief Executives were compared with the compensation received by the salaried Directors on different Boards. An attempt at examination as to how CEO pay was determined by analyzing consultant and compensation committee records. Leapfrogging accounted for about half of the overall increase in CEO salaries in that time period, according to the survey. The mean CEO salary plus bonus, adjusted for inflation, grew by 58 percent from 1993 to 2005, and the mean total compensation, which included stock and stock options, increased by 116 percent. Meanwhile, mean annual compensation in India overall rose by only 20 percent.
As per SIBI Guidelines, there is a mandate that the firms shall disclose the salaries drawn by the top-CEOs, how much bonus, percentage of profit was paid to them, what were their perks. Also salaries, commissions drawn by paid Directors also need to be disclosed. Some firms give Stock options to the Staff, wherein a good chunk in blue chip companies land in favour of the top executives like CEO, Mg Director, Dy Mg Director, Working Director etc. One CEO of a firm based in Chennai draws Rs 42 Cr as compensation per annum. His wife, who is the Dy MD, is also drawing an equivalent sum. There are many CEOs in India who draw an average salary and compensation of Rs 1 Cr and above.
The salaries of CEOs fixed during the last twenty years or so, based on standard surveys conducted by international reputed Analysts are that competition benchmarking is the bottomline for fixing the salaries of their own CEOs. Otherwise, there will be migration or desertion. But the comparison of salaries of competitions is often inflated, which artificially drive up competition.
The same benchmarking with the 6th pay commission recommendations to the bureaucrats has necessitated an enlargement in the salary and allowances of members of Parliament. However, Cabinet on the basis of the recommendation by parliamentary affairs ministry proposed to increase the salary from Rs 16,000 to Rs 50,000 against Rs 80,000 as recommended by the Parliamentary panel. Today, a Secretary to Government gets a pay of Rs 80,000 per month after the revision of their salaries after introduction of 6th Pay Commission. In addition an MP gets a daily allowance of Rs 2,000 per day, constituency allowance of Rs 45,000 and office expense of Rs 45,000 per month. The car allowance has been increased to Rs 4 lakh. Spouses are also eligible for free travel by flight. The increase is from retrospective effect (arrears from May 2009). In addition each MP is provided with Rs 2 Cr which can be spent by him for special works in his constituency. These are times when inflation is in the two digits, there is widespread disquiet because of non availability of jobs, or basic income, huge defence outlay because of fearsome neighbours, terrorist masterminds who want to see the country destroyed, agriculture and industry’s growth is slow paced. Our egalitarian society which promises every citizen the fundamental right to freedom of work, when there are none opportunities should glaringly reflect in the eyes of our people who have been capitulated to Parliament to work towards the welfare of the nation.
The free economy regime will see demand for more and more wealth, and creation of more wealth will lead to more spending resulted in runaway inflation.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Jewish synagogue-vantage of a Past?
Jewish Synagogue: Kochi and its historical monuments
Fort Kochi, the place not far away from the city of Kochi can ideally be termed as a cultural melting pot of Kerala. This small geographical entity is perhaps unique in the world due to its cultural representations. Be it for people from other parts of India or those from far off lands like those in the Middle-East and Europe, Fort Kochi at various stages of time in the past welcomed them all to settle down and lead a life in harmony with the native folks. Visitors to Kochi would invariably be treated to many a cultural representation. They all have left their marks in the form of traders, asylum seekers, rulers and those who came to spread their religious faiths. As you walk down from the main Anavathil Road toward boat jetty which will take a cruise in the Vembanad Lake, a landmark monumental one that rose from the cultural traits and religious beliefs of a community that came to Kochi seeking asylum. The Jews of Kochi, who fled their homeland - Israel during the Diaspora embraced Kochi as their real home. A short walk from Mattancherry bus stand or from the boat jetty nearby would take you to the Jewish Synagogue, situated at one end of the Jew Street in the Jew Town enclave of Mattancherry in Kochi. This synagogue was built in 1568 by the Malabar Yehudans or Cochin Jewish community. It was built close to the Mattancherry Palace Temple on the land gifted by King Rama Varma, a former ruler of Kochi. The Mattancherry Palace Temple and the Mattancherry synagogue share a common wall. This synagogue at Mattancherry is the oldest one in the Commonwealth of Nations. As one approaches the synagogue on Jew Street, its white facade begins to appear very prominently. A clock tower can also be seen, towering over and close to the facade. This was built in 1760 by Ezekiel Rahabi an affluent Jewish businessman. Of the four faces of the clock, the one facing the maharaja's palace showed the time in Malayalam. And among the other three, the face with etchings in Roman numerals was meant for the traders. Of the remaining two faces of the clock, one had writings in Hebrew while the other remains blank. Stepping inside the Synagogue, one's eyes would easily go to the glass chandeliers and blue willow-patterned Chinese floor tiles. The chandeliers are of Belgian origin. Also of interest are the Scrolls of the Law housed here and the several gold crowns received as gifts and the brass-railed pulpit. And for some exclusive pieces from history, the synagogue also houses the copper plates of privileges given to Joseph Rabban, the earliest known Cochin Jew, dating from the 10th century, written in Tamil, by the ruler of the Malabar Coast. And as one surveys the interior of this synagogue, the hundreds of 18th century, Chinese hand-painted porcelain tiles laid on the floor stand out. There is an oriental rug, which was a gift from Haile Selassie, the last Ethiopian Emperor. There is also a tablet from the earlier synagogue in Kochangadi in Kochi (built in 1344), which is placed on the outer wall of this synagogue. The inscriptions on it state that the structure was built in the year 5105 (as per the Hebrew Calendar) as an abode for the spirit of God. These days, walking on the Jew Street in Kochi, one can still find the busy spice market, which once had a sizable number of Jewish people engaged in spice trade. Nowadays, one would also come across curio shops run by those from Kashmir; selling mostly wood carvings, oil lamps, spice boxes, snake boats and books on Indian subjects. Most of the Jewish settlers here have now left for their homeland - Israel. In and around the Jewish Synagogue and on the Jew Street, one would come across travellers from different parts of the globe and of all age groups, curiously checking out the vestiges of a culture that was once very much part of the native population. And the presence of the Jewish community in Mattancherry is vindicated by the nearby Jewish Cemetery, which has tombstones written both in Malayalam and Hebrew.
I have walked past these famed monuments many times during my college days. After many years in the wilderliness, on my return to Kochi, I used to walk across Jew Town to Boat jetty to catch the boat to Wellingdon Island, where I served for nearly 3 years in the late 80s.
Fort Kochi, the place not far away from the city of Kochi can ideally be termed as a cultural melting pot of Kerala. This small geographical entity is perhaps unique in the world due to its cultural representations. Be it for people from other parts of India or those from far off lands like those in the Middle-East and Europe, Fort Kochi at various stages of time in the past welcomed them all to settle down and lead a life in harmony with the native folks. Visitors to Kochi would invariably be treated to many a cultural representation. They all have left their marks in the form of traders, asylum seekers, rulers and those who came to spread their religious faiths. As you walk down from the main Anavathil Road toward boat jetty which will take a cruise in the Vembanad Lake, a landmark monumental one that rose from the cultural traits and religious beliefs of a community that came to Kochi seeking asylum. The Jews of Kochi, who fled their homeland - Israel during the Diaspora embraced Kochi as their real home. A short walk from Mattancherry bus stand or from the boat jetty nearby would take you to the Jewish Synagogue, situated at one end of the Jew Street in the Jew Town enclave of Mattancherry in Kochi. This synagogue was built in 1568 by the Malabar Yehudans or Cochin Jewish community. It was built close to the Mattancherry Palace Temple on the land gifted by King Rama Varma, a former ruler of Kochi. The Mattancherry Palace Temple and the Mattancherry synagogue share a common wall. This synagogue at Mattancherry is the oldest one in the Commonwealth of Nations. As one approaches the synagogue on Jew Street, its white facade begins to appear very prominently. A clock tower can also be seen, towering over and close to the facade. This was built in 1760 by Ezekiel Rahabi an affluent Jewish businessman. Of the four faces of the clock, the one facing the maharaja's palace showed the time in Malayalam. And among the other three, the face with etchings in Roman numerals was meant for the traders. Of the remaining two faces of the clock, one had writings in Hebrew while the other remains blank. Stepping inside the Synagogue, one's eyes would easily go to the glass chandeliers and blue willow-patterned Chinese floor tiles. The chandeliers are of Belgian origin. Also of interest are the Scrolls of the Law housed here and the several gold crowns received as gifts and the brass-railed pulpit. And for some exclusive pieces from history, the synagogue also houses the copper plates of privileges given to Joseph Rabban, the earliest known Cochin Jew, dating from the 10th century, written in Tamil, by the ruler of the Malabar Coast. And as one surveys the interior of this synagogue, the hundreds of 18th century, Chinese hand-painted porcelain tiles laid on the floor stand out. There is an oriental rug, which was a gift from Haile Selassie, the last Ethiopian Emperor. There is also a tablet from the earlier synagogue in Kochangadi in Kochi (built in 1344), which is placed on the outer wall of this synagogue. The inscriptions on it state that the structure was built in the year 5105 (as per the Hebrew Calendar) as an abode for the spirit of God. These days, walking on the Jew Street in Kochi, one can still find the busy spice market, which once had a sizable number of Jewish people engaged in spice trade. Nowadays, one would also come across curio shops run by those from Kashmir; selling mostly wood carvings, oil lamps, spice boxes, snake boats and books on Indian subjects. Most of the Jewish settlers here have now left for their homeland - Israel. In and around the Jewish Synagogue and on the Jew Street, one would come across travellers from different parts of the globe and of all age groups, curiously checking out the vestiges of a culture that was once very much part of the native population. And the presence of the Jewish community in Mattancherry is vindicated by the nearby Jewish Cemetery, which has tombstones written both in Malayalam and Hebrew.
I have walked past these famed monuments many times during my college days. After many years in the wilderliness, on my return to Kochi, I used to walk across Jew Town to Boat jetty to catch the boat to Wellingdon Island, where I served for nearly 3 years in the late 80s.
Monday, July 26, 2010
India's economic growth, Europe's envy
Some countries are out of the woods. Early signs of economic recovery from crisis have been predicted. International Monetary Fund has made periodic forecasts of economic growth, both for the global economy as well as individual nations, which tend to maintain the slow yet upbeat growth showing robust optimism. The world Economy is expected to make a turnaround with an anticipated growth of 4.6% in 2010. Periodically, IMF has been maintaining that the growth for 2010 was indicated as 2.5% (in June 2009), raised it to 3.9% (in January 2010), 4.2% (in April 2010) and 4.6% (end June 2010). Economic growth continues to be uneven. Gone are the days when the world economic growth witnessed fast recovery, the so called ‘V’ shaped recoveries. Today, at best, we can term it as double dip ‘M’ recovery. One emerging outcome of the crisis triggered economy is that China and India are leading the recovery, when the advance economies are trailing. The problem of correcting this looming imbalance remains. The lack of congruence in the objectives of the rich and developed economies is due to the inborn traits of the economy of these two distinct economies.
A severe debt crisis in certain European countries is blowing hot and cold. A sovereign default by Greece will have serious far-reaching negative consequences for the global financial sector, since European and American banks hold a high proportion of bonds issued by Greece. One of the advanced economies United Kingdom is on a fast track fiscal consolidation programme.
One of the outcomes of the economic meltdown and its subsequent easing is that India has emerged unscathed, even though a few showers of the impact were felt here and there. Indian Banks performed well during the economic holocaust. Exports were not commendable but not bad. Market recovery was both good and bad. Even agriculture growth which we had written off proved our economists wrong and posted a positive growth though in decimals. IMF has improved India’s economic growth rate to 9.4% up from 8.8% made in April. Even though the most optimistic economist in India predicts that the growth may be overall 8.5%, RBI and Planning Commission are prepared to mark up their figures. Tax collections have been buoyant, manufacturing sector is on a V shaped growth Overall growth has been on predicted lines. Inflation continues to be a cause of worry, and infrastructure growth continues to be below mark which is adding to transaction costs.
With Rupee more stable against the Dollar, show that it has gained maturity and the time for Rupee Convertibility in the Capital markets. We should get offensive if we need to break new grounds in the world economy. Optimistic pessimism is better tackled by being confident. The time is ripe now to grow out of the mindset of caution to aggressive postures. Markets won’t wait. We need to overpower markets with our prowess.
A severe debt crisis in certain European countries is blowing hot and cold. A sovereign default by Greece will have serious far-reaching negative consequences for the global financial sector, since European and American banks hold a high proportion of bonds issued by Greece. One of the advanced economies United Kingdom is on a fast track fiscal consolidation programme.
One of the outcomes of the economic meltdown and its subsequent easing is that India has emerged unscathed, even though a few showers of the impact were felt here and there. Indian Banks performed well during the economic holocaust. Exports were not commendable but not bad. Market recovery was both good and bad. Even agriculture growth which we had written off proved our economists wrong and posted a positive growth though in decimals. IMF has improved India’s economic growth rate to 9.4% up from 8.8% made in April. Even though the most optimistic economist in India predicts that the growth may be overall 8.5%, RBI and Planning Commission are prepared to mark up their figures. Tax collections have been buoyant, manufacturing sector is on a V shaped growth Overall growth has been on predicted lines. Inflation continues to be a cause of worry, and infrastructure growth continues to be below mark which is adding to transaction costs.
With Rupee more stable against the Dollar, show that it has gained maturity and the time for Rupee Convertibility in the Capital markets. We should get offensive if we need to break new grounds in the world economy. Optimistic pessimism is better tackled by being confident. The time is ripe now to grow out of the mindset of caution to aggressive postures. Markets won’t wait. We need to overpower markets with our prowess.
Religion, Personal beliefs, and Law
Religious faith and beliefs are fundamental. It is a belief that is fundamental to a man. It is a personal belief and that too a sacred right of one. One has a right to profess one’s religion and the doctrines laid by it. The Constitutional layers, the Legislature, Executive and Judiciary should give paramount importance to the faith of the individual and should not do anything directly or inadvertently that even remotely hurt the sentiments of that individual. In recent times, various controversies emerge, where unintentionally, the religious faiths is dragged hurting the sentiments of the believers. .
There was recently a case against street meetings organized by various political parties where the roads were used by the audience while the speakers used to address them from the peripheral of the road. There are permanent sheds constructed outside the Corporation office, where many public meetings of protest are held. In front of the Secretariat in the capital also, there are regular satyagrahas organized by different political parties and different protesting people against something they find irritating according to their subjective arguments.
The division bench of the High court held that street meetings at junctions or roadsides, pavements which obstructed the freedom of other people to make use of the same places for moving as unlawful and held that such meetings need to be banned. When the government filed a revision petition against curbs on roadside public meetings, the Court made a passing reference to the Attukal Pongala festival of the temple held on the roads on the capital city. The court went on to remark that it would be best if the roads are left free and the assembly of women, as part of the festival, takes place in various stadia in the Capital city.
The famed Pongala festival of the temple held February-March every year witnesses thousands of women line up along roads in the capital city and prepare an offering of cooked rice for the presiding deity, believed to be an incarnation of Kannaki, the central character of the Tamil epic "Silappathikaaram". This temple is dedicated to Attukal Bhagavathy. The ritual of cooking the offering starts when the chief priest lights a pot of fire brought from the sanctum sanctorum of the temple. The fire is then passed on to the devotees, who sit on the roadside and their kiln is lit. The offering is prepared using rice, jaggery and coconut and is cooked in three to four hours’ time. It is only when the priest, around 3 p.m., starts spraying sacred water from the temple on the cooked rice that the women devotees pack up their offerings and begin their return journey. This event recorded in the Guinness Book of World record for the largest number of people converging for a temple event (1.5 million women). If all the stadium in Kerala are used, the sanctity of the festival, that the priest lights the first fire and passes on the pyre, so that it passes on to the last person, and it is part of a religious ritual that people participate in, would be lost.
There are street processions prevalent amongst religious communities. Among the Brahmin caste, there is a procession on the eve of marriage known as ‘mapillaazappu’, when the bride groom accompanied by kinsmen of the bride and bridegroom go to the family temple of the bride and then come back to the Kalyana mandap. It is a procession of people, and if it is interpreted as obstructing traffic, hence cannot be held, is against the spirit of unconceived legal right conferred. Any body can walk through a road, so as to cause no disturbance to the right of the other.
When Pope Paul II came to Mumbai, he held a prayer meeting on the Byculla beach, but the disciples occupied the whole roads abutting the beach, bringing the traffic to the halt for nearly two hours. (In 1962). When Queen Elizabeth visited Chennai in 1960, the Mount Road was blocked for three hours. Can Police block the road for hours just as s security measure for a dignitary?
There are temple festivals, when caparisoned elephants and a sea of humanity participate. One such example is the Trichur Pooram. When the prime Minister recently visited Kanpur, road restrictions prevented an ordinary citizen to carry his injured boy to the nearby hospital. He had to take circuitous Road resulting in half an hour delay and the death of the boy. Can Police block the entire road citing security reasons, and prevent people from taking the road during emergency.
A funeral procession, if it is not allowed, affects the sentiment of the family. MGR’s funeral procession had millions of people, and it blocked the entire Mount Road stretch upto Beach from cathedral Road, for more than 24 hours. If a particular stretch of Road, if used by some for years together, becomes a road, as the Law of adverse possession apply.
The Courts are trustees to uphold the dignity of the constitution. Uphold the law, protect righteous against tyranny, oppression, suppression. Each act has to be viewed in different contexts, and no law can be uniformally applied to all events. No straight jacket law is available in any law books, cited cases in All India Reporter, or in the Indian Constitution. We have to obey Law, abide by Law and practice Law according to Rule of Law. Differences in circumstances would alter the judicial prouncements. But every citizen of India should take care to see that he does not hurt the sentiment of another.
.
There was recently a case against street meetings organized by various political parties where the roads were used by the audience while the speakers used to address them from the peripheral of the road. There are permanent sheds constructed outside the Corporation office, where many public meetings of protest are held. In front of the Secretariat in the capital also, there are regular satyagrahas organized by different political parties and different protesting people against something they find irritating according to their subjective arguments.
The division bench of the High court held that street meetings at junctions or roadsides, pavements which obstructed the freedom of other people to make use of the same places for moving as unlawful and held that such meetings need to be banned. When the government filed a revision petition against curbs on roadside public meetings, the Court made a passing reference to the Attukal Pongala festival of the temple held on the roads on the capital city. The court went on to remark that it would be best if the roads are left free and the assembly of women, as part of the festival, takes place in various stadia in the Capital city.
The famed Pongala festival of the temple held February-March every year witnesses thousands of women line up along roads in the capital city and prepare an offering of cooked rice for the presiding deity, believed to be an incarnation of Kannaki, the central character of the Tamil epic "Silappathikaaram". This temple is dedicated to Attukal Bhagavathy. The ritual of cooking the offering starts when the chief priest lights a pot of fire brought from the sanctum sanctorum of the temple. The fire is then passed on to the devotees, who sit on the roadside and their kiln is lit. The offering is prepared using rice, jaggery and coconut and is cooked in three to four hours’ time. It is only when the priest, around 3 p.m., starts spraying sacred water from the temple on the cooked rice that the women devotees pack up their offerings and begin their return journey. This event recorded in the Guinness Book of World record for the largest number of people converging for a temple event (1.5 million women). If all the stadium in Kerala are used, the sanctity of the festival, that the priest lights the first fire and passes on the pyre, so that it passes on to the last person, and it is part of a religious ritual that people participate in, would be lost.
There are street processions prevalent amongst religious communities. Among the Brahmin caste, there is a procession on the eve of marriage known as ‘mapillaazappu’, when the bride groom accompanied by kinsmen of the bride and bridegroom go to the family temple of the bride and then come back to the Kalyana mandap. It is a procession of people, and if it is interpreted as obstructing traffic, hence cannot be held, is against the spirit of unconceived legal right conferred. Any body can walk through a road, so as to cause no disturbance to the right of the other.
When Pope Paul II came to Mumbai, he held a prayer meeting on the Byculla beach, but the disciples occupied the whole roads abutting the beach, bringing the traffic to the halt for nearly two hours. (In 1962). When Queen Elizabeth visited Chennai in 1960, the Mount Road was blocked for three hours. Can Police block the road for hours just as s security measure for a dignitary?
There are temple festivals, when caparisoned elephants and a sea of humanity participate. One such example is the Trichur Pooram. When the prime Minister recently visited Kanpur, road restrictions prevented an ordinary citizen to carry his injured boy to the nearby hospital. He had to take circuitous Road resulting in half an hour delay and the death of the boy. Can Police block the entire road citing security reasons, and prevent people from taking the road during emergency.
A funeral procession, if it is not allowed, affects the sentiment of the family. MGR’s funeral procession had millions of people, and it blocked the entire Mount Road stretch upto Beach from cathedral Road, for more than 24 hours. If a particular stretch of Road, if used by some for years together, becomes a road, as the Law of adverse possession apply.
The Courts are trustees to uphold the dignity of the constitution. Uphold the law, protect righteous against tyranny, oppression, suppression. Each act has to be viewed in different contexts, and no law can be uniformally applied to all events. No straight jacket law is available in any law books, cited cases in All India Reporter, or in the Indian Constitution. We have to obey Law, abide by Law and practice Law according to Rule of Law. Differences in circumstances would alter the judicial prouncements. But every citizen of India should take care to see that he does not hurt the sentiment of another.
.
Sweet Vendor and Multiplex in small towns?
The Government is the strong view that a re-orientation of the Policy framework was the need of the hour and enhanced foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi brand retail would transform the rural economy and generate massive employment and opportunities for both the rural and urban youth. The Government feels that there would be no loss of jobs or displacement of small vendors. Instead, it would give a big thrust to the rural economy and Small Township where infrastructure would come up and value addition would take place. This would also help the farmers to get remunerative price. The focus would be flow of investment into cold storage chains, agro processing, food processing, which would reduce post-harvest losses which stood at an alarming 35-40%. Back-end investments will be given priority.
The retail sector accounted for over 7% of the total workforce, with around 30 million people depending on it.
What is causing alarm is the revised National Policy that promised small traders on the roadside and mobile vendors in the urban centers better access to space and an end to harassment by civic authorities is just limping. Only a handful of Cities had take follow-up action, even though the Policy was announced.. This apathy towards street vendors is in sharp contrast to the enthusiasm shown for the organized segment, which constitutes hardly 5% of the retail trade. More than 10 million people across Indian cities earn their livelihood through street vending, which is easy to enter and needs meager capital. Despite its useful role, street vending is yet to be legally recognized, often branded by every lawful agency as ‘encroachment’. This makes the vendors vulnerable to frequent eviction and exploitation by the law enforcers. In order to protect them, the Policy recommended a registration system for vendors and demarcating of city spaces for vending, apart from setting up of town committees with vendor participation. These suggestions, when acted upon, would put all vending activity on a protective and regulatory legal framework. The Association for Vendors have pointed out that more than a lakh applications for licences remain unprocessed since 2007.
Indian Government should take a leaf out of Surakarta City in Indonesia have co-opted street vendors in urban development. The local government there worked with the vendors, ear-marked new places for trading, issued trade free permits and provided tax exemption for the first six months. Soft loans and trining were also arranged to help them improve their business. Bhubaneswar has created 52 exclusive vending zones near the existing areas frequented by the vendors. More than 2,000 vendors have been rehabilitated in these markets without much relocation and loss of earnings. Such progressive measures can be easily adopted by other cities and scaled up where necessary. The Street vendors are a valuable part of the city life and the state must ensure that they are extended assistance to progress. Government of India, when they conceptualized the MSME Act 2006, forgot that retail trade plays an important role in the Village economy. Their trust for mini, micro manufacture, has made them forget that Market potential Value which determines the aggregate purchasing power in the rural level can be ploughed back into the rural economy by establishing outlets to circulate the money within the rural area. In order to do that, the Government should assess Market potential Indicators which is a measure of per capita purchasing power of the rural area.
Our Government is more concerned about focusing on rural areas by bringing in big chains and malls with huge capital, which could destroy the rural economy. The wholesalers dress themselves as Retailers would devour the Rural markets. These wholesalers in the grab of retailers with brands would not only destroy the country’s basic micro, small and medium industries in the food segment, but also devour all the small vendors who live on the business generated by street vending.
The problem with our Planners and Policy makers is that they conceive and conceptualize policies without having an idea of the rudiments of concept of economics of the rural area. People who make Pappads and Pickles, and sell from door to door will vanish when branded pickles and pappads, factory made, will be dumped in the rural markets.
If our Department of Industrial Policy and promotion (DIPP) do little more homework, they would find out that the present FDI in India is around $ 46 billion while the outgo is around $ 13 billion. If the government could take care of the remittance portfolio of non resident Indian which is today $ 40 billion for which our Banks provide a pittance by way of interest rate, our Country can use the money of our own citizens to grow. The falling banks, and withdrawal of Dollar securities, and a slump in investments, and economic disaster of America, has it given Indian Government any lesson? For God's sake, don't forget Gandhiji's words, "Indian economy is rural economy". Don't destroy it.
The retail sector accounted for over 7% of the total workforce, with around 30 million people depending on it.
What is causing alarm is the revised National Policy that promised small traders on the roadside and mobile vendors in the urban centers better access to space and an end to harassment by civic authorities is just limping. Only a handful of Cities had take follow-up action, even though the Policy was announced.. This apathy towards street vendors is in sharp contrast to the enthusiasm shown for the organized segment, which constitutes hardly 5% of the retail trade. More than 10 million people across Indian cities earn their livelihood through street vending, which is easy to enter and needs meager capital. Despite its useful role, street vending is yet to be legally recognized, often branded by every lawful agency as ‘encroachment’. This makes the vendors vulnerable to frequent eviction and exploitation by the law enforcers. In order to protect them, the Policy recommended a registration system for vendors and demarcating of city spaces for vending, apart from setting up of town committees with vendor participation. These suggestions, when acted upon, would put all vending activity on a protective and regulatory legal framework. The Association for Vendors have pointed out that more than a lakh applications for licences remain unprocessed since 2007.
Indian Government should take a leaf out of Surakarta City in Indonesia have co-opted street vendors in urban development. The local government there worked with the vendors, ear-marked new places for trading, issued trade free permits and provided tax exemption for the first six months. Soft loans and trining were also arranged to help them improve their business. Bhubaneswar has created 52 exclusive vending zones near the existing areas frequented by the vendors. More than 2,000 vendors have been rehabilitated in these markets without much relocation and loss of earnings. Such progressive measures can be easily adopted by other cities and scaled up where necessary. The Street vendors are a valuable part of the city life and the state must ensure that they are extended assistance to progress. Government of India, when they conceptualized the MSME Act 2006, forgot that retail trade plays an important role in the Village economy. Their trust for mini, micro manufacture, has made them forget that Market potential Value which determines the aggregate purchasing power in the rural level can be ploughed back into the rural economy by establishing outlets to circulate the money within the rural area. In order to do that, the Government should assess Market potential Indicators which is a measure of per capita purchasing power of the rural area.
Our Government is more concerned about focusing on rural areas by bringing in big chains and malls with huge capital, which could destroy the rural economy. The wholesalers dress themselves as Retailers would devour the Rural markets. These wholesalers in the grab of retailers with brands would not only destroy the country’s basic micro, small and medium industries in the food segment, but also devour all the small vendors who live on the business generated by street vending.
The problem with our Planners and Policy makers is that they conceive and conceptualize policies without having an idea of the rudiments of concept of economics of the rural area. People who make Pappads and Pickles, and sell from door to door will vanish when branded pickles and pappads, factory made, will be dumped in the rural markets.
If our Department of Industrial Policy and promotion (DIPP) do little more homework, they would find out that the present FDI in India is around $ 46 billion while the outgo is around $ 13 billion. If the government could take care of the remittance portfolio of non resident Indian which is today $ 40 billion for which our Banks provide a pittance by way of interest rate, our Country can use the money of our own citizens to grow. The falling banks, and withdrawal of Dollar securities, and a slump in investments, and economic disaster of America, has it given Indian Government any lesson? For God's sake, don't forget Gandhiji's words, "Indian economy is rural economy". Don't destroy it.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Tribute to great Mohammed Rafi
Rafi, heart & soul of Hindi music.
Mohammed Rafi was one of the tallest playback singers who dominated like colossus the Hindi music world. He was elitist among the singers. The melody was mellifluous, voice dignified, his vocal range variety was measureless.
Suhani raat dhal chuki in ‘Dulari’ song made Mohammed Rafi a household name (in the 1940). In Baiju Bawra, his rendering of the song ‘O Duniya Ke Rakhewala’ raising his voice made him an immortal singer.
There have been many music Directors under whom Rafi performed and out-classed his performance one over the other. Naushad, C Ramachandra, S D Burman, Shanker-Jaikishen, Salil Chowdhury, Madan Mohan, R D Burman, Laxmikant-Pyarelal, Kalyanji-Anandji, and many more. He sang duets with outstanding and versatile musicians like Lata, Asha,
Rafi sang a number for music director Salil Choudhury for the picture ‘Maya’, “Tasveer Teri dil mein” which made a towering impression on the audience.
For top order heroes of the Hindi cinema like Dilip Kumar, Dev Anand, Guru Dutt, Shammi Kapoor, Manoj Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, and even Rajesh Khanna, Rafi had used his voice and sang exceptionally well with excellent ability and resounding success. He has immortalized many songs like Aye chand jise, Na mukhda mor ke and Tujhe dekha for Uttam Kumar in ‘Choti Si Mulakat’. His best number was for Ambitah Bachan, ‘Teri bindya re’ and ‘Dard e dil’ for Rishi Kapoor. He sang a song in ‘Inkar’ (music director Rakesh Roshan)’Dil ki kali’ (in 1978). Rafi’s other effective songs included, Tere naam ka diwana, Gulabi aankhen, Yeh duniya yeh mehafil and Tum jo mil gaye ho.
App yogi agar humse milthe raha, dekiya ek din pyar ho jayaga, tumse acha kon he, meri mahaboob, Teri pyari pyari soorat ko, mere samnavala kidki ma ek chand ka thukada rahatha hai.., appuka haseena roopama aaj naya noor hai, Yaad na jaye beete dino ki, were sung by him with finesse and élan.
Rafi’s 30 th death anniversary comes on July 31. Yet, the songs sung by Mohammed Rafi, are sung and resung by today’s generation with reverence. He is an immortal icon.
Mohammed Rafi was one of the tallest playback singers who dominated like colossus the Hindi music world. He was elitist among the singers. The melody was mellifluous, voice dignified, his vocal range variety was measureless.
Suhani raat dhal chuki in ‘Dulari’ song made Mohammed Rafi a household name (in the 1940). In Baiju Bawra, his rendering of the song ‘O Duniya Ke Rakhewala’ raising his voice made him an immortal singer.
There have been many music Directors under whom Rafi performed and out-classed his performance one over the other. Naushad, C Ramachandra, S D Burman, Shanker-Jaikishen, Salil Chowdhury, Madan Mohan, R D Burman, Laxmikant-Pyarelal, Kalyanji-Anandji, and many more. He sang duets with outstanding and versatile musicians like Lata, Asha,
Rafi sang a number for music director Salil Choudhury for the picture ‘Maya’, “Tasveer Teri dil mein” which made a towering impression on the audience.
For top order heroes of the Hindi cinema like Dilip Kumar, Dev Anand, Guru Dutt, Shammi Kapoor, Manoj Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, and even Rajesh Khanna, Rafi had used his voice and sang exceptionally well with excellent ability and resounding success. He has immortalized many songs like Aye chand jise, Na mukhda mor ke and Tujhe dekha for Uttam Kumar in ‘Choti Si Mulakat’. His best number was for Ambitah Bachan, ‘Teri bindya re’ and ‘Dard e dil’ for Rishi Kapoor. He sang a song in ‘Inkar’ (music director Rakesh Roshan)’Dil ki kali’ (in 1978). Rafi’s other effective songs included, Tere naam ka diwana, Gulabi aankhen, Yeh duniya yeh mehafil and Tum jo mil gaye ho.
App yogi agar humse milthe raha, dekiya ek din pyar ho jayaga, tumse acha kon he, meri mahaboob, Teri pyari pyari soorat ko, mere samnavala kidki ma ek chand ka thukada rahatha hai.., appuka haseena roopama aaj naya noor hai, Yaad na jaye beete dino ki, were sung by him with finesse and élan.
Rafi’s 30 th death anniversary comes on July 31. Yet, the songs sung by Mohammed Rafi, are sung and resung by today’s generation with reverence. He is an immortal icon.
Development should be even, dogmatic,and not political?
Development should be even, if Economic vulnerability be achieved..
Somebody with an Economic touch wrote the Chief Minister Shri V S Achuthanandan’s speech which he made before the elite National Development Council which was presided over by the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, his council of Ministers, Dr Montek Singh Aluwaliah, Dy Chairman, Planning Commission, with Chief Ministers from all the States attending the same.
Kerala Chief Minister’s speech contained two important grouses. One, Central sponsored Schemes, were altered mid-way, or the financing pattern (Centre-state share in allocation) was tinkered in such a way, or the Schemes were downgraded, so that the number of beneficiaries were lowered. Sometimes, these Central Schemes devised did not have a state flavour, as some states had peculiar geography and some of the Central schemes were obsolete in different States. For example, increasing literacy among the population, Kerala had already attained cent percent in most of the districts with the cumulative average standing at 90.86 as against all-India average of 64.84. Infant mortality rate was 14 male (against 61 all-India), 10 female (against 37 all India) and average 13 male/female (against 55 all India). As far as the banking sector in Kerala was concerned, as against 53,000 banks functioning all over India, Kerala accounted for 2,249 bank branches. While deposits to the order of 70,886 Cr was accounted for by these branches while the advances stood at Rs 47,326 Cr.Moreover, healthy flow of NRI remittances which touched a peak of US $ 20 billion. Kerala, with feeble Commerce Ministry's help posted 100% growth in 2008-9, and achieved 9.4% growth in the first half when all the other states pulled out negative growth figures. The Commerce Ministry gave olive branches to Tamilnadu, Gujarat and Maharashtra. This was stated in the Economic Review(2009-10). But support?
The second grouse exposed by the Chief Minister related to barriers placed by the various agencies of the Central government by refusing clearance for projects of interest to the State sector. Central clearance was taking an inordinate delay. He cited the specific example of Vizhinjam deep water international transshipment container terminal which required no central funding. The Kochi metro project is in deep slumber. The Railway coach factory announced at Alleppey is not even in the preliminary state. The Bharathapuzha Basin Authority could have been conceived which would have helped the people to increase their consumption of per capita water for drinking, if water flow to the sea could be arrested with appropriate planning. We have silent Valley, Thekkadi Forest Reserve. The Fort Kochi beach which was one of the best tourist attractions has become invisible due to coastal erosion. The place where Vasco da Gama landed at Koppal should have been taken over by the Archiological Department and made a national monument. The cenotaph is private property uncared, unvisited at the side of the Koppal beach. Has the Central Government done anything to protect the first trade emporium of India at Kodungallur? The first Church in India built by St Thomas the Apostle in AD 52, the first mosque built at the instance of Malik Ibn Dinar, one of the disciples of Prophet Muhammad (the Second mosque in the world after Medina in Saudi Arabia), and a temple steeped in history and accounted for in Ramayana, Mahabharata, Akannanuru, SILAPATHIKARAM, in the poems of Pathanjali and Kartheyanan, are all here. AncientMuziris (Muchiri) has been a centre of trade, Greeks, Romans, (Yavanas), Jews, Arabs, regularly visited the place. Pliny the Elder, Periplus of the Erythrean Sea, give vivid details of the place which commanded a place on the trade route. Gold coins of Tiberius, Nero were found (Pattanam) in a place around 10 kms from Kodungallur.
As regards power capacity, there is a huge mismatch between peak demand and supply. Kerala’s total power production capacity is 2657.24MW having a consumer base of 1 Cr. Hydroelectric projects contribute 2087.23 MW of Power while NTPC contributes 570.016 MW to the state’s grid. Peak load capacity is 2800 MW. Brhamapura (106.6MW), Kozhikode (128 MW) diesel based power units, Kanzhikode Wind farm produces 2.025 MW. The rest is accounted by Kayamkulam thermal Power station. The state is yet to crystallize its policy of trifurcation of the Electricity Board as envisaged by the Centre. Distribution losses have been a major worry, apart from efficiency, load factor, and collection of arrears. The transmission and distribution losses need lot of correction, meticulous plan. But political will to crack down on power theft and defaulters in payment of arrears is lacking. The state needs to look at renewable and other non conventional sources of energy. Kerala is energy hungry state. If it has to attract crucial industries, the State needs to stay ahead of demand and keep building a surplus capacity. Chronic deficit on the power front would deter investment in the State.
It is a pity that Central investment in Kerala is hardly 2.44% of Rs 7.83 lakh Crore which means, Rs 19,144 Cr is invested in Kerala by the Central Government. This investment translates to job creation of 35,000 people.
Chief Minister’s outburst that the Central Government was bleeding the state white, by thrusting central plans, and the load of ratio of investment on the one hand, and on the another denying and delaying permission for state based schemes, where central investments are not critical.
As a person, who knew the dynamics of getting a plan approved at the Central level, and the passage of time in takes to cut the bureaucratic red tape, a state, which contributes to the literacy, well being of its people, fetches huge foreign remittance which no state does, yet to treat it in a cavalier manner is most unjust. Shri Vijay Kelkar could have done some justice to the state through the 13th Finance Commission. Pranab Mukherjee could have looked at some of the state impediments to growth, Kamalnath, who boasts of having conceived 7000 Km of laying National Highways could have cast his eyes on Kerala Roads, the Agriculture Minister could have looked at Kerala’s pitiable status in regard to rice, wheat availability and the sinking Coconut oil industry, the Power Ministry could have approved some plans for Kerala. What is the use of planning Commission when they cannot distribute money prudently providing cushion to backward states instead of helping states on political considerations. A Pity?
Somebody with an Economic touch wrote the Chief Minister Shri V S Achuthanandan’s speech which he made before the elite National Development Council which was presided over by the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, his council of Ministers, Dr Montek Singh Aluwaliah, Dy Chairman, Planning Commission, with Chief Ministers from all the States attending the same.
Kerala Chief Minister’s speech contained two important grouses. One, Central sponsored Schemes, were altered mid-way, or the financing pattern (Centre-state share in allocation) was tinkered in such a way, or the Schemes were downgraded, so that the number of beneficiaries were lowered. Sometimes, these Central Schemes devised did not have a state flavour, as some states had peculiar geography and some of the Central schemes were obsolete in different States. For example, increasing literacy among the population, Kerala had already attained cent percent in most of the districts with the cumulative average standing at 90.86 as against all-India average of 64.84. Infant mortality rate was 14 male (against 61 all-India), 10 female (against 37 all India) and average 13 male/female (against 55 all India). As far as the banking sector in Kerala was concerned, as against 53,000 banks functioning all over India, Kerala accounted for 2,249 bank branches. While deposits to the order of 70,886 Cr was accounted for by these branches while the advances stood at Rs 47,326 Cr.Moreover, healthy flow of NRI remittances which touched a peak of US $ 20 billion. Kerala, with feeble Commerce Ministry's help posted 100% growth in 2008-9, and achieved 9.4% growth in the first half when all the other states pulled out negative growth figures. The Commerce Ministry gave olive branches to Tamilnadu, Gujarat and Maharashtra. This was stated in the Economic Review(2009-10). But support?
The second grouse exposed by the Chief Minister related to barriers placed by the various agencies of the Central government by refusing clearance for projects of interest to the State sector. Central clearance was taking an inordinate delay. He cited the specific example of Vizhinjam deep water international transshipment container terminal which required no central funding. The Kochi metro project is in deep slumber. The Railway coach factory announced at Alleppey is not even in the preliminary state. The Bharathapuzha Basin Authority could have been conceived which would have helped the people to increase their consumption of per capita water for drinking, if water flow to the sea could be arrested with appropriate planning. We have silent Valley, Thekkadi Forest Reserve. The Fort Kochi beach which was one of the best tourist attractions has become invisible due to coastal erosion. The place where Vasco da Gama landed at Koppal should have been taken over by the Archiological Department and made a national monument. The cenotaph is private property uncared, unvisited at the side of the Koppal beach. Has the Central Government done anything to protect the first trade emporium of India at Kodungallur? The first Church in India built by St Thomas the Apostle in AD 52, the first mosque built at the instance of Malik Ibn Dinar, one of the disciples of Prophet Muhammad (the Second mosque in the world after Medina in Saudi Arabia), and a temple steeped in history and accounted for in Ramayana, Mahabharata, Akannanuru, SILAPATHIKARAM, in the poems of Pathanjali and Kartheyanan, are all here. AncientMuziris (Muchiri) has been a centre of trade, Greeks, Romans, (Yavanas), Jews, Arabs, regularly visited the place. Pliny the Elder, Periplus of the Erythrean Sea, give vivid details of the place which commanded a place on the trade route. Gold coins of Tiberius, Nero were found (Pattanam) in a place around 10 kms from Kodungallur.
As regards power capacity, there is a huge mismatch between peak demand and supply. Kerala’s total power production capacity is 2657.24MW having a consumer base of 1 Cr. Hydroelectric projects contribute 2087.23 MW of Power while NTPC contributes 570.016 MW to the state’s grid. Peak load capacity is 2800 MW. Brhamapura (106.6MW), Kozhikode (128 MW) diesel based power units, Kanzhikode Wind farm produces 2.025 MW. The rest is accounted by Kayamkulam thermal Power station. The state is yet to crystallize its policy of trifurcation of the Electricity Board as envisaged by the Centre. Distribution losses have been a major worry, apart from efficiency, load factor, and collection of arrears. The transmission and distribution losses need lot of correction, meticulous plan. But political will to crack down on power theft and defaulters in payment of arrears is lacking. The state needs to look at renewable and other non conventional sources of energy. Kerala is energy hungry state. If it has to attract crucial industries, the State needs to stay ahead of demand and keep building a surplus capacity. Chronic deficit on the power front would deter investment in the State.
It is a pity that Central investment in Kerala is hardly 2.44% of Rs 7.83 lakh Crore which means, Rs 19,144 Cr is invested in Kerala by the Central Government. This investment translates to job creation of 35,000 people.
Chief Minister’s outburst that the Central Government was bleeding the state white, by thrusting central plans, and the load of ratio of investment on the one hand, and on the another denying and delaying permission for state based schemes, where central investments are not critical.
As a person, who knew the dynamics of getting a plan approved at the Central level, and the passage of time in takes to cut the bureaucratic red tape, a state, which contributes to the literacy, well being of its people, fetches huge foreign remittance which no state does, yet to treat it in a cavalier manner is most unjust. Shri Vijay Kelkar could have done some justice to the state through the 13th Finance Commission. Pranab Mukherjee could have looked at some of the state impediments to growth, Kamalnath, who boasts of having conceived 7000 Km of laying National Highways could have cast his eyes on Kerala Roads, the Agriculture Minister could have looked at Kerala’s pitiable status in regard to rice, wheat availability and the sinking Coconut oil industry, the Power Ministry could have approved some plans for Kerala. What is the use of planning Commission when they cannot distribute money prudently providing cushion to backward states instead of helping states on political considerations. A Pity?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)